Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $3.7M

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?

Q: How did 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 01, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 01

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 7 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	47c	6%
Compound Signal	NO	46c	8%
Claude Analysis	NO	32c	65%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	38c	72%
Grok Contrarian	NO	25c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	52c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	54c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 42c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money skewed NO at deep discounts (23c) versus YES paying premium (75c), signaling tracked wallets faded the headline optimism around a June 30 ceasefire. The 23c NO entries imply conviction that military operations persist past the deadline, with current 46c pricing still leaving structural upside for the NO thesis.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$10.1K	+64%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 50c (+64%), $10.1K on NO Activity · 11 events · Mar 23 → Apr 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 23BUYNO27+$1,238$1,238 Mar 24BUYNO24+$1,230$2,319 Mar 29BUYNO26+$289$2,802 Apr 01BUYNO19+$2$2,049 Apr 04BUYNO31+$211$3,555 Apr 07BUYNO16+$177$1,975 Apr 08BUYNO16+$731$2,732 Apr 10BUYNO21+$23$3,634 Apr 18BUYNO18+$323$3,438 Apr 21BUYNO19+$105$3,734 Apr 23BUYNO36+$781$7,856 Realized— Unrealized+$5,037 Total Profit+$5,037 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1892) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	YES	$3.3K	-28%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (-28%), $3.3K on YES Activity · 1 event · Mar 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 23BUYYES75+$4,562$4,561 Realized— Unrealized−$1,290 Total Profit−$1,290 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1544) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfcf2..69	Retail	NO	$2.3K	+102%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 50c (+102%), $2.3K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 09BUYNO23+$1,150$1,150 Realized— Unrealized+$1,175 Total Profit+$1,175 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1974 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

21% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$11,357 on $15.7K capital deployed (avg -72.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

21% in profit

NO positions

79% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	54c	$3.7M	100c
AI Consensus	42c	—	× missed

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