AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 49c |
2%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 35c |
30%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 24c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 38c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 76c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 39c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered YES well above current price and has not added at the discount, signaling waning confidence rather than accumulation. The absence of fresh NO entries combined with a NO-dominant tape suggests the directional bet has already played out — wallets are stuck long, not pressing the short, which points to continued downside drift toward 15-20c absent a diplomatic catalyst.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $11.2K | +5% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $4.0K | -46% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $2.4K | -34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$33,198 on $17.6K capital deployed (avg +189.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30c | $4.1M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 39c | — | × missed |