Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Prediction markets put the probability at 33%: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets are divided (33% YES, 67% NO). Why polarization, not Iran or Hamas, will decide Israel's next election - analysis.

What’s Happening

The Israeli Knesset voted on May 20, 2026 to dissolve itself, triggering an early national election that polls suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose. The dissolution bill passed with a 61-59 majority, collapsing the coalition after a protracted crisis over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions. Surveys published by Channel 12 and Kan News in late May show the opposition bloc, led by Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett’s newly formed “Together – Under Bennett’s Leadership” party, leading by 4-6 seats. The election is now expected in late August or early September 2026, rather than the originally scheduled November 2026 date. [Reuters, May 20]

The primary driver of the coalition’s collapse was the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bill, which Netanyahu pushed through the Knesset in a late-night vote on June 11, 2024, but which the Supreme Court struck down in March 2026. The legislation would have permanently exempted yeshiva students from mandatory military service, a policy opposed by secular and nationalist parties. The crisis deepened when Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz threatened to leave the coalition unless a compromise was reached. Netanyahu’s reliance on Shas and United Torah Judaism for his parliamentary majority left him unable to pass a budget or maintain stability. The Haaretz analysis from May 18, 2026 noted that Netanyahu’s approval ratings have “hit a concrete ceiling” at roughly 38%, with marginal shifts among undecided voters likely to decide the outcome. [Haaretz, May 18]

The election will be fought primarily over domestic polarization rather than security issues, despite ongoing tensions with Iran and the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 massacre. U.S. President Donald Trump injected further uncertainty on May 20, 2026, stating that Netanyahu “will do what I tell him” after a phone call regarding a potential Israeli strike on Iran. Trump also joked that he could run for prime minister of Israel, underscoring the volatile geopolitical backdrop. The Jerusalem Post reported on May 21, 2026 that the campaign will be defined by the question of whether Benjamin Netanyahu can retain enough of his traditional base while the opposition consolidates around Bennett and Lapid. The final election date will be set by the Central Elections Committee within 14 days of the dissolution vote, with candidate lists due 45 days before the ballot. [Ynetnews, May 20]

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