As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?” at 36% YES with $372K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide. Currently, markets are divided (42% YES, 58% NO).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 52-point mispricing — fair value 92c vs market 40c. BUY YES at 40c — models see 52c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 40c | 35% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 55c | 35% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | ??? | 40c | 35% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 85c | 72% |
Models are split on direction. Average fair value estimate: 92c vs market 40c.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 92c — market prices it at 40c. 52-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 34c, signaling a confident bet on conviction before the current price rise. This early accumulation at a discount implies smart money sees value in the YES outcome, and their holding through a 6c gain suggests they expect further upside. The lack of NO entries from this wallet indicates a one-sided bullish stance, which could attract follow-on buying if the price consolidates above 40c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $5.2K | +5% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, with entries at 34c against a current price of 40c, indicating a 17.6% unrealized gain. No NO positions are tracked, so all P&L pressure is on the YES side, which supports the price as holders have no incentive to sell at a loss. The absence of NO entries suggests limited bearish conviction, reinforcing upward price momentum.
Polymarket prices YES at 36c with $372K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 92c. Significant 56-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36c | $372K |
| Our Model | 92c | — |