As of August 31, 2026, Polymarket prices “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?” at 29% YES with $447K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide. Currently, markets are divided (42% YES, 58% NO).
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 51-point mispricing — fair value 80c vs market 29c. BUY YES at 29c — models see 51c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 58c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 35c | 30% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 62c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 65c | 60% |
| AI Kimi Macro | ??? | 35c | 25% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
Models are split on direction. Average fair value estimate: 80c vs market 29c.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 80c — market prices it at 29c. 51-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 38c, well above the current 29c, signaling a conviction bet that has so far moved against it. That lone long position offers no confirmation from other smart-money wallets, so it reads as an early or isolated directional call rather than a validated trend. If this wallet holds or adds, it signals belief in a re-rating toward 38c; if it exits, the thin YES support likely breaks lower.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $8.0K | -24% |
With YES trading at 29c against entries at 38c, every tracked YES position is underwater and no NO holders are in profit, leaving the book one-sided and fragile. The 9c gap between entry and current price implies YES buyers are absorbing unrealized losses, which typically caps rallies unless fresh conviction arrives. Without profitable NO counterparties to provide resistance, price support depends entirely on whether existing YES holders average down or capitulate.
Polymarket prices YES at 29c with $447K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 80c. Significant 51-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 29c | $447K |
| Our Model | 80c | — |