How did 'Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 30, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 30, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $11.6M

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?

Resolved · MAY 30

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	43c	14%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	70c	65%
Gemini Flash	YES	65c	60%
Kimi Macro	YES	70c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 69c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 of 1 Wallets Is Smart Money

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned YES — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x204f..14	Smart	YES	$1.3K	+2%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 50c (+2%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYYES30+$1,268$1,268 Realized— Unrealized+$21 Total Profit+$21 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 458 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,289 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	30c	$11.6M	0c
AI Consensus	69c	—	× missed

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