AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 43c |
14%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 22c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 42c |
58%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 29c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x204f..14 | Smart | NO | $7.9K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,514 on $7.9K capital deployed (avg +69.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 42c | $38.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 29c | — | ✓ matched |