AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 38c |
24%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 22c |
30%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c |
28%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
75%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 40c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES at 18c, signaling a directional bet that a US-Canada tariff-lowering agreement lands by September 30. With no NO entries from this wallet, there is no hedging or contrarian smart-money signal against the trade. The 2c edge over current price suggests the wallet entered early and remains aligned with further upside.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.0K | +10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,047 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $73.8K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 40c | — | ✓ matched |