As of September 14, 2026, Polymarket prices “US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?” at 25% YES with $51K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 25% probability to: us-canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by september 30?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 5/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 60c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 80c | 62% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 58c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 72c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 75% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (60–85c vs 75c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 75c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
Smart money is represented by a single wallet that bought YES at 18c and has not added, trimmed, or hedged, signaling a directional bet on a US-Canada tariff-lowering deal by September 30. With no NO entries to offset it, the positioning is unambiguously bullish but thin, so the 25c quote reflects that lone conviction rather than broad confirmation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.3K | +36% |
The sole tracked wallet holds YES from 18c, now 7c in profit at a 25c mark, with 100% of YES entries profitable and no NO positions on the book. This one-sided green P&L removes any incentive to sell into strength, leaving the 18c entry as a soft floor and the 25c price supported by unrealized gains rather than fresh conviction.
Polymarket prices YES at 25c with $51K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 25c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 25c | $51K |
| Our Model | 25c | — |