How did 'US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 15, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 15, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $399.4K

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

Resolved · JUN 15

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	49c	2%
Claude Analysis	NO	32c	55%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	74c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	74c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 65c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

A single tier wallet established YES at 34c, well below current pricing, signaling early conviction that deal odds were materially underpriced. The clean accumulation at deep discount and absence of NO positioning suggests smart money leans toward deal optionality holding through July, though one-wallet depth limits signal strength.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$2.2K	+134%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 50c (+134%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 11BUYYES34+$940$940 Realized— Unrealized+$1,257 Total Profit+$1,257 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (932) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.8K	+28%
This Market Entered at 59c → now 50c (+28%), $1.8K on YES Activity · 5 events · May 26 → Jun 14 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYYES59+$16$16 May 27BUYYES65+$155$172 Jun 11BUYYES43+$453$568 Jun 13BUYYES75+$8$989 Jun 14BUYYES75+$720$1,709 Realized— Unrealized+$482 Total Profit+$482 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (2793) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$1.3K	+39%
This Market Entered at 55c → now 50c (+39%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 4 events · May 29 → Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYYES70+$205$205 Jun 11BUYYES45+$420$552 Jun 13BUYYES63+$436$1,204 Jun 13SELLYES74−$222$1,202 Realized+$57 Unrealized+$412 Total Profit+$469 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1006) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,503 on $5.3K capital deployed (avg +121.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	80c	$399.4K	100c
AI Consensus	65c	—	✓ matched

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