US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 90%: US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (90% YES).

What’s Happening

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) on July 8 issued a formal advisory urging airlines to avoid Iranian, Iraqi, and Lebanese airspace until August 31, citing the "ongoing high level of tensions and the potential for further military action" surrounding the fragile U.S.-Iran truce. This regulatory action came just one day after President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire "over" following fresh U.S. strikes on an Iranian southern port, a flare-up that Tehran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei called a direct violation of the agreement. The EASA bulletin, which withdrew a broader advisory covering Gulf states like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, effectively narrows the risk zone while keeping the core question of whether the us ceasefire against iran continues through august 31 at the center of aviation and diplomatic planning [Reuters, Jul 08].

The ceasefire's trajectory has been marked by mutual accusations and covert coordination. A Critical Threats Project report from August 1 revealed that senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force officers held virtual conference calls with Hezbollah, Houthi, and Iraqi militia commanders during the April truce, using the pause to coordinate expanded operations against U.S. forces. Meanwhile, the initial two-week ceasefire announced by Trump on April 7—mediated by Pakistan and based on a ten-point Iranian proposal—was immediately threatened by IRGC-affiliated media reports of a planned withdrawal. These dynamics illustrate that while the formal us ceasefire against iran continues through august 31 on paper, its operational reality is contested by hardliners on both sides who view the pause as a tactical interlude rather than a durable settlement [Critical Threats, Aug 05].

Looking ahead, the structural factor determining whether the us ceasefire against iran continues through august 31 is the unresolved status of a 60-day memorandum of understanding reportedly being drafted, covering enriched uranium stockpiles and Strait of Hormuz navigation. CBS News reported on June 1 that Trump had recently edited the possible agreement, but Iran's foreign ministry simultaneously accused Washington of continued violations, including morning strikes. The EASA's decision to keep advisories valid until August 31—rather than extending them indefinitely—suggests European regulators see the current truce as holding but not consolidating. With negotiations in Islamabad scheduled for April 10 and subsequent rounds unconfirmed, the market's 90% probability reflects a baseline expectation of no major escalation, yet the pattern of ceasefire violations and IRGC coordination indicates that any single incident could reset the timeline [CBS News, Jun 01].

Traded on Polymarket — $142K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 90c YES with $142K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.