As of September 22, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?” at 48% YES with $67K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 48% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through december 31?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 3/6 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 48c | 32% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 48c | 22% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 68c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 65c | 55% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 75c | 65% |
3 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (65–75c vs 52c). Kimi Macro leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 69c — market prices it at 52c. 17-point gap supports NO.
Smart money here is represented by a lone wallet that bought YES at 44c and is now in profit, signaling conviction that a US-Iran ceasefire persists through December 31. The absence of any NO entries means no tracked counter-position is betting against continuation, leaving the directional read skewed toward YES. However, with a sample of just one wallet, this positioning should be treated as a weak rather than decisive signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $1.8K | +8% |
The single tracked wallet's YES position entered at 44c is now 4c in profit with the market at 48c, while no NO entries exist to create opposing pressure. This one-sided profitability suggests YES holders have room to hold or add without being underwater, lending mild support to the 48c level. With only one wallet tracked, the P&L signal is thin but directionally bullish for YES.
Polymarket prices YES at 48c with $67K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 31c. Significant 17-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48c | $67K |
| Our Model | 31c | — |