Was the AI verdict correct?

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	16c	68%
PIN Model	YES	50c	0%
Compound Signal	NO	40c	20%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	30c	62%
Grok Contrarian	YES	48c	42%
Gemini Flash	NO	30c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	18c	72%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 33c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Tracked wallets show a dominant YES side despite the losing entries, with YES accumulation at 29c-40c signaling some contrarian or long-horizon bets on a ceasefire holding. NO entries at 66c-75c indicate smart money hedging or fading the ceasefire narrative, and their profitability reinforces the bearish tilt. The split positioning suggests no clear consensus, but profitable NO flow carries more weight for near-term direction.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Retail	YES	$13.0K	-12%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (-12%), $13.0K on YES Activity · 25 events · Sep 26 → Nov 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 26BUYYES35+$3,111$3,110 Sep 26SELLYES36−$192$3,004 Sep 27BUYYES34+$1,981$4,791 Sep 27SELLYES33−$1,450$3,314 Sep 28BUYYES34+$268$3,589 Sep 29BUYYES35+$96$3,839 Sep 29SELLYES35−$128$3,712 Sep 30BUYYES36+$226$4,029 Sep 30SELLYES36−$84$3,961 Oct 02BUYYES29+$28$3,219 Oct 08BUYYES35+$2,656$6,532 Oct 08SELLYES35−$336$6,211 Oct 15BUYYES32+$73$5,752 Oct 17BUYYES32+$127$5,879 Oct 18BUYYES33+$3$6,066 Oct 21BUYYES25+$3$4,599 Oct 23BUYYES28+$45$5,196 Oct 26BUYYES29+$1,097$6,413 Oct 27BUYYES28+$302$6,570 Oct 28BUYYES26+$3,277$9,297 Oct 28SELLYES28−$677$9,468 Oct 29BUYYES26+$468$9,300 Oct 30BUYYES24+$1,187$9,586 Nov 01BUYYES25+$1,919$12,078 Nov 02BUYYES26+$224$12,785 Realized−$91 Unrealized−$1,456 Total Profit−$1,546 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 753 trades).
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$5.3K	+10%
This Market Entered at 66c → now 50c (+10%), $5.3K on NO Activity · 8 events · Sep 19 → Oct 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYNO70+$71$71 Oct 01BUYNO66+$1,320$1,387 Oct 08BUYNO66+$476$1,863 Oct 19BUYNO65+$4,099$5,947 Oct 19SELLNO70−$388$5,972 Oct 20SELLNO67−$1,042$4,675 Oct 21BUYNO70+$656$5,538 Oct 21SELLNO71−$471$5,131 Realized+$76 Unrealized+$539 Total Profit+$615 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1328) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$5.0K	-18%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (-18%), $5.0K on YES Activity · 8 events · Oct 14 → Oct 30 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 14SELLYES33−$33$0 Oct 19BUYYES34+$2,284$2,284 Oct 19SELLYES35−$167$2,165 Oct 20BUYYES33+$1,670$3,737 Oct 24BUYYES27+$2,700$5,720 Oct 29BUYYES26+$696$6,101 Oct 29SELLYES25−$3,258$2,836 Oct 30BUYYES27+$2,100$5,105 Realized−$581 Unrealized−$541 Total Profit−$1,123 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$2.2K	-37%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 50c (-37%), $2.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Sep 22 → Sep 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 22BUYYES44+$1,697$1,697 Sep 28BUYYES36+$1,567$2,956 Realized— Unrealized−$1,089 Total Profit−$1,089 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1050) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	Retail	NO	$1.6K	-2%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (-2%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 4 events · Sep 21 → Oct 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 21BUYNO68+$159$159 Oct 21BUYNO75+$397$573 Oct 23BUYNO73+$348$903 Oct 29BUYNO78+$746$1,718 Realized— Unrealized−$36 Total Profit−$36 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1850 trades).

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26% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$16,919 on $27.1K capital deployed (avg -62.4%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

26% in profit

YES positions

74% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	26c	$1.2M	0c
AI Consensus	33c	—	✓ matched

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