Was the AI verdict correct?

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	87c	74%
Compound Signal	NO	45c	10%
DeepSeek Quant	???	40c	30%
Grok Contrarian	YES	58c	42%
Gemini Flash	???	42c	50%
Kimi Macro	NO	25c	62%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 50c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is uniformly positioned YES with entries clustered 39c-49c, signaling a directional bet on ceasefire continuation even as the market trades 5-15c below their average cost. With no NO entries among tracked wallets, there is no hedging or contrarian signal to challenge the bullish thesis, but the lack of profit-taking capacity suggests conviction is being tested rather than confirmed. Their entries imply the 34c level is viewed as a discount to fair value, though the absence of add-on buying leaves the position vulnerable.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x12d6..a8	Retail	YES	$14.0K	-4%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 50c (-4%), $14.0K on YES Activity · 41 events · Sep 20 → Nov 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 20BUYYES37+$39$39 Sep 25BUYYES48+$803$854 Sep 25SELLYES48−$67$787 Sep 26BUYYES40+$3,065$3,716 Sep 26SELLYES41−$206$3,673 Sep 27BUYYES38+$1,476$4,799 Sep 27SELLYES38−$1,127$3,735 Sep 28BUYYES39+$1,815$5,646 Sep 28SELLYES41−$431$5,500 Sep 29BUYYES39+$129$5,433 Sep 29SELLYES41−$34$5,608 Sep 30BUYYES40+$304$5,838 Sep 30SELLYES41−$144$5,772 Oct 01SELLYES39−$363$5,127 Oct 02SELLYES39−$605$4,459 Oct 08BUYYES42+$471$5,333 Oct 08SELLYES41−$458$4,747 Oct 09BUYYES41+$1,028$5,819 Oct 09SELLYES42−$265$5,641 Oct 10BUYYES42+$2,015$7,613 Oct 10SELLYES43−$60$7,794 Oct 12BUYYES44+$256$8,230 Oct 12SELLYES43−$2,424$5,619 Oct 13SELLYES46−$1,882$4,129 Oct 15BUYYES39+$1,172$4,673 Oct 17BUYYES38+$984$5,537 Oct 18BUYYES42+$7,211$13,307 Oct 19SELLYES46−$420$14,211 Oct 22BUYYES37+$103$11,533 Oct 24BUYYES35+$406$11,359 Oct 25BUYYES36+$65$11,667 Oct 26BUYYES38+$11$12,520 Oct 28BUYYES36+$687$12,387 Oct 29BUYYES35+$696$12,591 Oct 29SELLYES36−$81$13,046 Oct 30BUYYES35+$423$12,965 Oct 30SELLYES38−$2,039$12,196 Oct 31BUYYES35+$249$11,533 Oct 31SELLYES37−$685$11,451 Nov 01BUYYES35+$395$11,150 Nov 02BUYYES36+$1,930$13,455 Realized+$202 Unrealized−$776 Total Profit−$574 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1506 trades).
0x162f..8d	MM	YES	$2.7K	-24%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 50c (-24%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 1 event · Sep 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 22BUYYES49+$3,547$3,547 Realized— Unrealized−$833 Total Profit−$833 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1050) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$1.4K	-4%
This Market Entered at 39c → now 50c (-4%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · Sep 19 → Oct 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 19BUYYES44+$18$18 Oct 28BUYYES39+$1,448$1,463 Realized— Unrealized−$58 Total Profit−$58 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1328) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$1.2K	-15%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 50c (-15%), $1.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Oct 08 → Oct 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 08BUYYES44+$1,384$1,384 Oct 14SELLYES44−$20$1,353 Realized— Unrealized−$211 Total Profit−$211 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$19,322 on $19.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	38c	$1.3M	0c
AI Consensus	50c	—	× missed

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