As of September 22, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?” at 58% YES with $73K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 58% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through november 30?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 24-point mispricing — fair value 82c vs market 58c. BUY YES at 58c — models see 24c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 62c | 42% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 58c | 25% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 58c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | ??? | 58c | 45% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 85c | 72% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (62–98c vs 58c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 82c — market prices it at 58c. 24-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 49c and is now up roughly 18%, signaling conviction that a US-Iran ceasefire holds through November 30. With no NO entries on record, this wallet's positioning is unambiguously directional and aligned with the market's dominant YES side. Their early entry below current price suggests informed accumulation rather than momentum chasing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $4.2K | +18% |
With YES trading at 58c against entries at 49c, every YES position is in profit while NO holders are underwater, creating asymmetric pressure that supports the current price. The 9c gain per YES share incentivizes holders to defend the bid rather than exit, keeping upward pressure on YES. Absent NO-side capitulation or fresh sellers, the profitable YES cohort has little reason to sell into strength.
Polymarket prices YES at 58c with $73K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 82c. Significant 24-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 58c | $73K |
| Our Model | 82c | — |