As of October 19, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?” at 67% YES with $56K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 67% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through november 8?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. BUY YES at 67c — models see 9c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 84c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c | 38% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 58c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 75c | 60% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 75c | 62% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (72–84c vs 67c). Kimi Macro leads with 62% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 76c — market prices it at 67c. 9-point gap supports YES.
Smart money is represented by one wallet that bought YES at 71c and is now sitting on a 4-point drawdown, signaling a bullish ceasefire-continuation lean that has so far been punished by price drift. With no NO entries on record, positioning is one-sided and thin, so the entry reads as a directional bet rather than a validated signal and offers limited read-through on near-term direction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $7.1K | -4% |
The single tracked wallet is underwater on its YES position, entered at 71c against a current 67c mark, leaving 0% of YES holders in profit and no NO-side participants to speak of. With the entire book on the losing side of the trade, there is little profit-taking pressure but also no fresh confirmation from winners, so the 67c level reflects unrealized losses rather than conviction support.
Polymarket prices YES at 67c with $56K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 76c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 67c | $56K |
| Our Model | 76c | — |