As of October 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?” at 94% YES with $221K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: us x iran ceasefire continues through october 7?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/6 models agree on YES, fair value 93c vs market 94c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 95c | 80% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 78c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 96c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 97c | 88% |
6 of 6 models estimate YES fair value below market (78–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 90% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 93c — market prices it at 94c. 1-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 93c, signaling a high-confidence bet on the ceasefire holding through October 7. With no NO entries recorded, there is no countervailing smart-money signal, leaving the bullish positioning unchallenged. This lone YES entry suggests informed conviction that the status quo persists, though the lack of additional wallets limits the signal's robustness.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.4K | +1% |
With YES trading at 94c and all tracked entries at 93c, every YES position sits marginally in profit while NO holders are underwater. The tight 1c spread between entry and current price implies thin conviction and low volatility, with 94c acting as a ceiling that limits further upside for bulls. This asymmetry favors YES holders but offers little incentive for new capital, as the remaining 6c payout barely compensates for the risk of a ceasefire collapse.
Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $221K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 93c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $221K |
| Our Model | 93c | — |