AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 16c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively on NO at 50-54c — a coin-flip entry that has played out decisively as the diplomatic timeline tightened toward the April 29 deadline. The absence of any tracked YES exposure signals conviction that no US-Iran meeting materializes before resolution, with wallets likely to hold through expiry rather than book early.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $8.5K | +54% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.6K | +66% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | NO | $1.1K | +63% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$9,873 on $11.2K capital deployed (avg +87.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $1.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 16c | — | ✓ matched |