AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 30c |
68%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 32c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 22c |
76%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 27c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned on the YES side, with entries clustered tightly at 39c, signaling conviction that a US-Iran diplomatic meeting is more likely than the market's 47c implies. The lack of any NO entries among tracked wallets suggests smart money sees asymmetric upside toward resolution, with the 39c entry acting as a de facto floor for their positioning.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $5.7K | -24% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | YES | $2.9K | +50% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,227 on $8.6K capital deployed (avg -14.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60c | $468.6K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 27c | — | × missed |