As of October 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?” at 50% YES with $118K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 50% probability to: next us-iran senior diplomatic meeting by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 50c. BUY NO at 50c — models see 36c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 45c | 32% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 72% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (75–98c vs 50c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 50c. 36-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 47c, positioning against a near-term US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting. That entry signals conviction that no such meeting materializes by the deadline, and with the wallet already in profit, it has room to hold or add. A lone NO position at 47c suggests informed skepticism about diplomatic progress rather than broad consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.9K | +6% |
With YES at 50c, no YES holder is in profit, while every NO position entered at 47c is profitable. This creates asymmetric pressure: NO holders have little incentive to sell and lock in gains, while YES buyers face immediate paper losses, likely capping any upward price momentum. The 50c level appears to be a ceiling rather than a floor given the absence of profitable YES support.
Polymarket prices YES at 50c with $118K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Significant 36-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50c | $118K |
| Our Model | 14c | — |