AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 30c |
62%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 28c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 65c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 28c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned NO at 45c, a contrarian bet against the 68c market consensus that is currently losing. With no YES entries recorded, this wallet's conviction on a diplomatic meeting failing to materialize by March 2027 is unprofitable and isolated, offering little smart-money validation for the NO side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $2.4K | -37% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,362 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 71c | $451.5K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 28c | — | × missed |