AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioning is thin and split: just 2 tracked wallets, all on YES, with entries averaging well above the current 8c print. Those entries signal early-cycle optimism on a diplomatic breakthrough that hasn't materialized — the underwater YES book and absent NO accumulation point to fade rather than conviction, consistent with the broader Session 60 pattern of short-dated diplomatic theses failing to converge.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | YES | $3.3K | +23% | |
| 0x5188..04 | MM | YES | $1.3K | -52% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$4,630 on $4.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $3.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |