As of September 14, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?” at 20% YES with $96K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 20% probability to: us x iran diplomatic meeting by october 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 5/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 60c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 62c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 85c | 62% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 65c | 55% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
5 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (62–88c vs 80c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 76c — market prices it at 80c. 4-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 20c, signaling a directional bet on a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026, with no offsetting NO exposure. This one-sided positioning suggests conviction in the event occurring, though the thin wallet sample limits confidence in a broader smart-money signal. The lack of NO entries means there is no countervailing informed flow to challenge the YES thesis at this price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | YES | $2.5K | +2% |
With YES trading at 20c and all tracked YES entries at 20c, the position is at breakeven with no realized profit, while no NO entries exist to create opposing pressure. The absence of profitable NO holders removes a natural source of sell-side resistance, leaving the 20c level lightly defended. Any upward price move would immediately put the entire YES cohort in profit, potentially encouraging holding rather than early exit.
Polymarket prices YES at 20c with $96K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 24c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 20c | $96K |
| Our Model | 24c | — |