AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 66c |
32%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 44c |
12%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 44c |
38%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 30c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 36c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 20c, positioning early and directionally bullish on a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026. That entry signals conviction that the event is underpriced relative to current 32c levels, though the thin one-wallet sample limits confidence in broader smart-money consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | Retail | YES | $5.5K | +111% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.1K | +83% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$24,954 on $6.6K capital deployed (avg +380.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48c | $356.8K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 36c | — | × missed |