As of November 9, 2026, Polymarket prices “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?” at 80% YES with $66K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
The December 31 deadline leads at 80% YES odds, giving diplomacy the longest window to secure a US-Iran ceasefire.
The US x Iran effective ceasefire by December 31 remains the longest-dated contract in a series of deadline-specific markets, with December 31, 2026 commanding the largest share of attention as the window offering the most room for diplomacy. Shorter-dated contracts—November 8, 15, 22, and 30—carry lower implied probabilities, reflecting skepticism that a durable pause can be reached within weeks. Market rules state resolution depends on official information from the US and Iranian governments and a consensus of credible reporting, and that a qualifying military action resets the 14-day clock, which could sharply reprice near-term deadlines. [Lines, Nov 08]
The diplomatic backdrop remains fragile. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Major General Mohsen Rezaei has demanded that Washington end the war on all fronts, release frozen Iranian assets, and lift the naval blockade before negotiations resume, according to the October 31, 2026 Iran Update. Unspecified sources cited in that assessment said a US delegation would travel to Doha only after Qatar and Iran reach agreement on terms. The impasse follows the collapse of talks between President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—the highest-level direct engagement since 1979—after which Trump ordered a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. [Critical Threats, Oct 31]
The structural factor determining resolution is the Strait of Hormuz: Tehran has conditioned a permanent ceasefire on US guarantees and reopening the waterway, while Washington has linked continued restraint to compliance. As the ceasefire's original two-week deadline lapsed, Trump announced the US would continue to cease fire, extending the pause without a formal agreement. Whether the US x Iran effective ceasefire by December 31 is achieved therefore hinges less on deadline mechanics than on whether Doha talks convene and produce enforceable terms covering the blockade, frozen assets, and the strait. [Britannica, Mar 06]
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