AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 69c |
38%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 55c |
10%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 58c |
45%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 74c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 74c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 71c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is unanimously and directionally long ceasefire-YES, having accumulated well below the current price — the 17c-48c entry band shows conviction built when the market priced the outcome as unlikely, not chasing at the top. This one-sided positioning signals that tracked wallets read de-escalation as underpriced, and their in-the-money status gives them room to defend YES if price dips toward their cost basis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $5.8K | -4% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $2.8K | -7% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $2.1K | +11% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$14,043 on $10.7K capital deployed (avg +131.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44c | $8.9M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 71c | — | ✓ matched |