US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 74% YES on Polymarket with $584K in total trading volume.

YES

74c

26c

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). US, Iran ‘getting close’ to agreeing deal to end war after 67 days.

Up from 72% to 74% since 2026-05-07 (+2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $584K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 74c YES with $584K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

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Last updated: May 08, 2026, 22:06 UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 74% YES with $584K in total volume.

Where can I bet on US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.