US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). US, Iran ‘getting close’ to agreeing deal to end war after 67 days.

What’s Happening

The probability of a US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026 stands at 10% amid intense diplomatic activity following a 67-day conflict. On May 6, 2026, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are “getting close” to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war and establish a framework for nuclear negotiations. President Donald Trump expressed optimism on May 6, stating that “good talks” had occurred over the previous 24 hours and that a deal was possible “in the coming days.” U.S. officials said they expect a response from Tehran on the one-page MOU imminently, though no formal text has been released. [Axios, May 06]

The push for a permanent settlement comes as Iran presses for a 30-day resolution to end hostilities, rather than extending the current ceasefire, according to a May 3 report from The Washington Post. Iran’s proposal calls for a full cessation of U.S. and Israeli strikes, which began on February 28, 2026, and a timeline for lifting sanctions. However, President Trump has expressed doubts about Tehran’s commitment, telling reporters on May 3 that “we’ll see if they’re serious.” The New York Post cited sources indicating that the MOU would outline talks on the future of Iran’s nuclear program, a key sticking point for hawks in Washington who argue that any deal must include verifiable dismantlement of enrichment capabilities. [Washington Post, May 03]

The structural factor determining whether a US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026 materializes is Iran’s formal response to the MOU, which U.S. officials expect within days. Axios reported on May 6 that the White House is awaiting a reply, while CNBC noted on May 7 that the framework would require further negotiations on nuclear safeguards and regional security guarantees. Analysts caution that even if the MOU is signed, a permanent deal remains uncertain due to deep mistrust and domestic political pressures in both countries. Forbes reported on May 6 that Trump’s vague social media post signaling an imminent deal has not been backed by concrete details from his administration. The market’s 10% probability reflects skepticism that a comprehensive, permanent agreement can be reached within the May 13 deadline, given the complexity of the nuclear issue and the short timeframe. [CNBC, May 07]

Traded on Polymarket — $319K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 10c YES with $319K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.