As of October 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?” at 16% YES with $138K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 16% probability to: venezuela election scheduled by december 31, 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 16c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 70c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 90c | 66% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 86c | 68% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 38c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 82% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (70–98c vs 84c). Kimi Macro leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 84c. 3-point gap supports NO.
Both tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on the NO side, entering between 53c and 72c, which signals conviction that a Venezuela election will not be scheduled by December 31, 2026. Their profitable entries and lack of any YES exposure suggest informed or directional money leaning bearish on the event. This positioning implies the market's 16c YES price may still be rich relative to what these wallets expect.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2615..6d | Smart | NO | $1.8K | +57% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $3.2K | +17% |
All tracked YES positions are underwater at the current 16c price, while every NO entry from 53c-72c is profitable, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend or extend gains. The absence of profitable YES wallets removes a natural source of bid support, making rallies vulnerable to further NO selling. With NO entries clustered well above the current price, those holders have a large cushion and little urgency to exit, reinforcing downward pressure on YES.
Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $138K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $138K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |