Politics Prediction Markets

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Despite renewed envoy pressure and diplomatic push, formal acquisition by 2026 year-end remains extremely unlikely given Denmark and Greenland's firm rejection.

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Sánchez Palomino trails establishment candidates in pre-election polling with the April 2026 vote approaching. All 4 tracked wallets sit NO on $12.8M volume, reflecting low conviction in a Peru Libre comeback.

Trump out as President before 2027?

Markets price exit at just 10% — Trump remains firmly entrenched, already eyeing 2028 GOP targets and floating a third term.

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Fujimori enters the June 7 runoff with a commanding 76% market price after first-round confirmation, though her three prior presidential losses warrant caution.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro in the first major head-to-head poll, and a fresh banker scandal compounds the drag; 26% YES looks generous.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula leads recent polls after the Bolsonaro-banker scandal, but markets price him at 46%, reflecting incumbent fatigue and a tight runoff scenario.

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Santos remains a fringe candidate with limited national polling traction, while frontrunners dominate the 2026 race narrative. The single smart wallet tracked sits firmly NO, aligned with $5.7M in volume tilted 87% against.

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

95%

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Trump's Saturday announcement of a near-final Iran peace deal with Hormuz reopening makes YES the dominant scenario by May 31.

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Starmer survives the June 30 cutoff barring a snap leadership challenge, with markets pricing a 72% NO.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin is pursuing a victorious war conclusion and broader European security deal this year, signaling entrenchment rather than imminent exit at 12% YES.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democrats hold an 80% edge as midterm history favors the out-party, though internal messaging fractures could narrow the gap before November.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Machado already won the 2025 prize, and Trump's name isn't surfacing in current peace-laureate coverage.

92%

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Becerra leads at 52% on Polymarket while Steyer sits at 26%, suggesting his $192M self-funding hasn't overcome the frontrunner's institutional edge.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Heavy billionaire money is mobilizing against the measure, with Brin alone spending $57M to defeat it.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Republicans face a steep uphill battle to retain their narrow House majority, with markets pricing only a 20% chance of GOP control after 2026.

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Labour's polling collapse and internal party rebellion over welfare cuts have pushed ouster odds sharply higher through Q2 2026. Lone smart wallet positioned NO bucks consensus, betting Starmer survives despite leadership chatter.

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Trump publicly demands Iran surrender its near-weapons-grade uranium, signaling zero tolerance for enrichment before May 31.

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia controls state media, election machinery, and has won every Duma vote since 2003, making 56% YES look underpriced versus structural reality.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Zelenskyy is pursuing EU accession and consolidating wartime authority, with no election plausible under martial law.

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Oh, the conservative People Power Party incumbent, trails Democratic challengers in recent Seoul polls as the June 3 race tightens. Two smart wallets hold YES despite the 36% market price, betting on incumbent advantage.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Markets price 46% YES for Democrats sweeping both chambers, reflecting tight Senate math even with a favorable House map.

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31.

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

De la Espriella leads at 56% as Colombia's right-wing populist surge consolidates around his anti-establishment platform ahead of May 2026.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Markets price an 82% chance Democrats flip at least one chamber, with internal GOP friction over the $1B White House security ask reinforcing the bearish tilt.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Republicans defending 22 of 35 Senate seats while needing only +5 House net for Democratic control makes the split outcome a long-tail scenario.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democrats need a net gain of four seats while defending tougher 2026 maps, and markets price that uphill climb at 48% YES versus 52% NO.

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Pratt's outsider campaign gains traction with Trump's backing, but a 22% market price still leaves Bass and the Democratic machine heavily favored.

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election.

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Seoul mayoral betting leans toward incumbent-aligned Chong Won-oh at 66%, but a third of capital still hedges against a late challenger surge.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Prediction markets put the probability at 52%: Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections. Currently, markets are divided (52% YES, 48% NO).

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Trump's Saturday announcement of a largely-reached Iran peace deal with the strait reopening makes a lift announcement by June 30 highly likely.

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 61%: Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026. Currently, markets are divided (61% YES, 39% NO).

Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

94%

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES).

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Markets are split on this outcome at 43% YES. 2 tracked wallets with $339K in volume.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES).

Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 8c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

92%

Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES).

94%

Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 82% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $179K in volume.

Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 81% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $143K in volume.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Markets are split on this outcome at 55% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $126K in volume.

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 88% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $120K in volume.

Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote.

Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Markets are split on this outcome at 56% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $87K in volume.

Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES).

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

95%