Politics: AI verdicts on 35 Polymarket markets

35 politics markets carry an AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD — because a tracked wallet holds a position; 81 more are tracked with live price and volume only. US elections, impeachment, global leaders.

One verdict per market a tracked wallet holds 3 math models + up to 5 AI models behind it 166 tracked wallets tiered daily by their record
Politics

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

With no credible succession trigger or health crisis materializing, the Kremlin's leadership remains firmly entrenched heading into year-end. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $19.9M in volume.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+3c edge $83K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +3% potential
Politics

Trump out as President before 2027?

At 6% YES versus 94% NO, markets see almost no chance Trump leaves office before 2027.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+7c edge $63K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +1% potential
Politics

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula's re-election bid stays a near coin-flip against a fragmented right-wing field. All 3 tracked smart wallets and $9.6M in volume lean the edge toward YES.

YES
52%
NO
48%
+6c edge $54K from 3 tracked wallets +77% potential
Politics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Contested field keeps the race near a coin-flip, with $9.6M in volume reflecting heavy uncertainty over the right's 2026 standard-bearer. Both tracked smart-money wallets lean YES, against the market's NO tilt.

NO
54%
YES
46%
+11c edge $16K from 2 tracked wallets +99% potential
Politics

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia's grip on ballot access and state media keeps it the structural favorite despite low approval. Both tracked smart wallets sit YES, aligned with the $9.1M in volume.

YES
74%
NO
26%
+4c edge $8K from 2 tracked wallets ★1 +29% potential
Politics

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party typically loses House seats at midterms, keeping the flip priced near-certain all cycle. Yet all 8 tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO, fading the crowd's consensus.

YES
88%
NO
12%
-6c edge $25K from 8 tracked wallets +300% potential
Politics

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party historically loses House seats at midterms, keeping GOP retention odds in single digits. All 5 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across $4.3M in volume.

NO
86%
YES
14%
+4c edge $16K from 5 tracked wallets +10% potential
Politics

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Netanyahu leads Likud into the 2026 election as one of two frontrunners, yet a crowded field keeps his comeback well below even odds.

NO
72%
YES
28%
+3c edge $60K from 3 tracked wallets +32% potential
Politics

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

California's prior wealth-tax bills stalled in the legislature, and tax-hike ballot measures rarely clear a majority. All three tracked smart-money wallets hold NO across $3.7M in volume.

NO
68%
YES
32%
+9c edge $28K from 3 tracked wallets +41% potential
Politics

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ukraine's wartime martial law suspends elections, leaving no constitutional path to a leadership change before year-end. All 4 tracked wallets hold NO across $3.1M in volume.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+11c edge $9K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +3% potential
Politics

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

A Democratic sweep of both chambers sits at a coin-flip as neither party holds a clear midterm edge yet. Six tracked wallets have converged on the YES side across $2.8M in volume.

YES
50%
NO
50%
+6c edge $19K from 6 tracked wallets +25% potential
Politics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Midterm dynamics weigh against the incumbent party sweeping both chambers, keeping a unified Republican Congress deep out of favor. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with the 90% lean across $2.7M in volume.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+5c edge $44K from 3 tracked wallets ★1 +9% potential
Politics

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Republicans currently hold the Senate, but recent national polling gives Democrats a modest edge heading into the 2026 midterms.

YES
52%
NO
48%
0c edge $14K from 3 tracked wallets +94% potential
Politics

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO).

NO
62%
YES
38%
+33c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +140% potential
Politics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

A split Congress — Republicans holding the Senate while Democrats flip the House — trails unified-control scenarios across $2M in volume. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on YES, against the 64% NO lean.

NO
64%
YES
36%
-6c edge $13K from 4 tracked wallets ★1 +154% potential
Politics

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Eizenkot's National Unity party surge in recent polls has fueled speculation as coalition instability keeps early-election odds elevated. Thin conviction signal — a lone tracked wallet sits NO against heavy $1.7M turnover.

YES
56%
NO
44%
-4c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +108% potential
Politics

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 95c. 6 smart wallets tracked.

YES
95%
NO
5%
+41c edge $91K from 6 tracked wallets 0% potential
Politics

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Two months from November, the race sits at a dead heat with $1.7M wagered and neither side pulling ahead. All 4 tracked smart-money wallets are positioned NO, leaning against a Republican hold.

NO
52%
YES
48%
+7c edge $16K from 4 tracked wallets +80% potential
Politics

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

McConnell is finishing his final Senate term and stays active chairing hearings despite recent hospitalization, making an early exit unlikely.

NO
84%
YES
16%
+10c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet ★1 +14% potential
Politics

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

LA Councilmember Raman sits below even odds against a crowded field on $1.5M volume. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold YES, betting against the 65% NO majority.

NO
65%
YES
35%
+10c edge $23K from 4 tracked wallets +157% potential
Politics

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Pardon speculation faded after the DOJ reaffirmed her sentence and no clemency chatter emerged from Mar-a-Lago. The lone smart wallet holds NO, aligning with the 94% consensus and $748K in volume.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+8c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +1% potential
Politics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Bolsonaro’s political ban and legal challenges have solidified his position as the leading opposition figure against Lula. One smart wallet holds a YES consensus, and $524K in volume reflects strong conviction in his second-place finish.

YES
79%
NO
21%
-8c edge $11K from 1 tracked wallet +20% potential
Politics

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

SDP leadership race and coalition talks with the Centre Party stalled after the December budget defeat. One tracked smart wallet holds a YES position, aligning with the 74% consensus despite thin institutional backing.

YES
80%
NO
20%
-2c edge $5K from 2 tracked wallets +18% potential
Politics

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

NO
87%
YES
13%
+11c edge $6K from 1 tracked wallet +9% potential
Politics

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+8c edge $7K from 1 tracked wallet +1% potential
Politics

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 8c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
92%
YES
8%
-2c edge $6K from 1 tracked wallet +3% potential
Politics

Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?

Politics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 78c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

YES
78%
NO
22%
+24c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +23% potential
Politics

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026.

NO
93%
YES
7%
+10c edge $4K from 1 tracked wallet +2% potential
Politics

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Royal decree on August 22 reshuffled key ministries, signaling erosion of Akhannouch's parliamentary base. One smart wallet with a YES consensus has driven $168K in volume, aligning with the 91% market tilt.

YES
85%
NO
15%
+63c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +12% potential
Politics

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Sullivan’s 2026 bid faces headwinds after a primary challenger emerged from the state GOP’s Trump-aligned wing. The sole tracked smart wallet is positioned NO, aligning with the 64% consensus despite $137K in two-sided volume.

NO
64%
YES
36%
+2c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +48% potential
Politics

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 46%: Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.

NO
59%
YES
41%
+19c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +59% potential
Politics

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Kremlin signals and war fatigue narratives have pushed odds up since late October. One tracked wallet, a top-10 geopolitics trader, holds a YES position, aligning with the $116K volume favoring the affirmative.

YES
64%
NO
36%
+18c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +48% potential
Politics

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 69%: Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026.

YES
68%
NO
32%
+1c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +185% potential
Politics

Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election. Currently, markets see this as likely (82% YES).

YES
86%
NO
14%
-3c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +11% potential
Politics

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 53%: Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election.

YES
60%
NO
40%
+21c edge $2K from 1 tracked wallet +58% potential

Also tracked — no verdict yet (81)

No tracked wallet holds a position on these markets, so the Radar makes no call; price and volume are live.

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NO 94c
$3.1M
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
NO 78c
$2.8M
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
NO 87c
$2.4M
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
NO 70c
$1.5M
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
NO 88c
$1.4M
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
YES 64c
$870K
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NO 80c
$538K
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
NO 80c
$463K
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
NO 86c
$418K
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
NO 80c
$408K
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
YES 68c
$343K
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NO 76c
$303K
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
NO 94c
$302K
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
YES 78c
$295K
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NO 58c
$292K
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
NO 91c
$279K
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
NO 75c
$264K
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
NO 72c
$262K
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
YES 83c
$261K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
YES 64c
$245K
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
NO 78c
$213K
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
NO 64c
$196K
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
YES 52c
$195K
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
NO 82c
$191K
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
NO 94c
$183K
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
NO 91c
$177K
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
NO 73c
$172K
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
YES 89c
$170K
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YES 90c
$149K
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NO 54c
$143K
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
NO 76c
$138K
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
YES 74c
$135K
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
YES 55c
$131K
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
NO 87c
$124K
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
YES 76c
$122K
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NO 92c
$115K
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
NO 92c
$115K
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
YES 60c
$105K
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
NO 94c
$105K
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
YES 62c
$102K
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
NO 86c
$99K
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NO 64c
$98K
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
NO 74c
$97K
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
YES 90c
$95K
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NO 76c
$94K
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
NO 76c
$93K
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?
NO 95c
$93K
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?
NO 90c
$93K
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NO 88c
$90K
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
YES 92c
$88K
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
NO 90c
$87K
Will the Republican Party win the MS-01 House seat?
YES 94c
$85K
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
NO 94c
$83K
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
NO 95c
$81K
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
NO 78c
$81K
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
YES 72c
$80K
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
NO 88c
$79K
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
NO 76c
$78K
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
YES 92c
$74K
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?
NO 92c
$71K
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?
NO 94c
$70K
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
NO 90c
$70K
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
NO 86c
$69K
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
NO 74c
$64K
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
NO 94c
$63K
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
NO 88c
$61K
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
NO 86c
$58K
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
YES 86c
$58K
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
NO 92c
$58K
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
YES 84c
$57K
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
YES 52c
$57K
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
YES 91c
$57K
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?
NO 94c
$56K
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NO 76c
$56K
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
NO 92c
$55K
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
YES 70c
$54K
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
NO 88c
$54K
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
NO 94c
$53K
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
YES 75c
$52K
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
NO 52c
$52K
Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?
NO 66c
$51K

Browse by category

Politics
35 with a verdict · 116 tracked
US elections, impeachment odds, global leaders
Sports
1 with a verdict · 53 tracked
NBA Finals, World Cup 2026, Champions League, F1
Geopolitics
44 with a verdict · 143 tracked
Regime change, ceasefire timelines, sanctions
Crypto
17 with a verdict · 132 tracked
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28 with a verdict · 93 tracked
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