Politics Prediction Markets

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin remains firmly entrenched with no succession fight or elite fracture in sight, and his 2024 reelection locked in a term through 2030. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $16.7M in volume.

92%

Trump out as President before 2027?

No impeachment proceedings or resignation pressure in motion, keeping removal odds near the floor despite $9.8M wagered. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on the NO side, reinforcing the consensus.

92%

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

A fringe contender with minimal establishment backing faces long odds against Brazil's better-known frontrunners. Both tracked smart wallets sit NO, and $7.9M in volume reinforces the bearish lean.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Flávio Bolsonaro trails incumbent Lula in Brazil's 2026 race, and markets give him just a 22% chance of winning.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Incumbent Lula enters October's first-round vote favored but facing a fragmented right-wing field. All 3 tracked smart wallets hold NO — a contrarian bet against the crowd on $7.3M volume.

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia has topped every State Duma election since 2003 with a supermajority; state media control makes another first-place win the base case.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Midterm dynamics favor the out-party, keeping Democrats heavily bid. Yet all 7 tracked smart wallets are positioned NO on $4.5M volume — a contrarian divergence from the crowd.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

The president's party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm since 1934, keeping GOP control a long shot. All 5 tracked smart wallets hold NO across $3.8M in volume.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

California wealth-tax proposals have repeatedly stalled in the legislature and face constitutional hurdles. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, with $3.5M in volume signaling conviction against passage.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Martial law bars wartime elections in Ukraine, keeping a leadership change off the table while the war grinds on. All three tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO, with $2.6M volume backing the status quo.

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

California hasn't elected a Republican governor since Schwarzenegger in 2006, leaving Hilton a steep climb in a deep-blue state. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, in line with $2.5M in volume.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

The 2026 Senate map favors Republicans, making a Democratic sweep of both chambers hard even if the House flips. All 5 tracked wallets sit NO on $2.1M volume, doubting a double-chamber trifecta.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Midterm history favors the opposition, making a GOP hold of both chambers a long shot. Yet all 3 tracked smart wallets are positioned YES against the 86% NO crowd on $1.9M volume.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democrats face a tough 2026 map, defending more competitive seats than they can flip to retake the chamber. All three tracked smart-money wallets are positioned NO on $1.8M in volume.

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Becerra leads a crowded Democratic field with $1.7M in volume backing YES. All 7 tracked smart wallets sit on NO, betting against the frontrunner despite the lopsided price.

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Split-Congress outcome rests on the GOP's favorable 2026 Senate map holding while Democrats ride the midterm swing to retake the House. All 4 tracked wallets sit YES, above the 40% market price.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Republicans hold a slim Senate majority and defend fewer toss-up seats in 2026, keeping the outcome close. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit on NO despite $1.4M in volume leaning YES.

Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?

Count Binface is a satirical protest candidate who has never won an elected seat, and markets price him at just 7% to break that streak.

93%

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

No sitting president has resigned since Nixon in 1974, anchoring expectations firmly against it. All 4 tracked smart wallets hold NO, with $499K in volume reinforcing that consensus.

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Sanders-backed progressive campaign and grassroots fundraising keep him leading the crowded primary field. The lone smart-money wallet holds a contrarian NO — a thin, low-conviction signal.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Alberta has scheduled no independence referendum for 2026, and separatist sentiment stays a fringe minority, so a vote this year is highly unlikely.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Gen Z-led protests demanding Akhannouch's resignation over health and jobs keep coalition pressure high. One tracked wallet holds YES; $165K volume signals conviction but thin smart-money confirmation.

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Erdoğan's mandate runs to 2028 and his bloc lacks the parliamentary supermajority to force an early vote. The one tracked smart wallet on $127K volume is positioned NO.

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

SBF's family has lobbied Trump for clemency on his 25-year fraud sentence, but no pardon signal has emerged. The single tracked wallet holds NO, matching thin conviction on a long-shot outcome.