Politics Prediction Markets

Live odds on 115 political prediction markets — US elections, impeachment, global leaders. Track which candidates smart money is betting on and where AI models see mispricing.

Real-time odds from Polymarket & Kalshi 5 AI models analyze every market 166 top wallets tracked on-chain

All ★ Best Bets 7 Politics 28 Geopolitics 44 Economics 25 Crypto 10 Sports 3 Science 1 Other 43

28 analyzed · 115 total

Politics

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

March 2024 re-election locked Putin's term through 2030, with no credible succession or health signal pointing to an early exit. All four tracked wallets hold NO across $19.5M in volume.

92%

YES

Politics

Trump out as President before 2027?

Carville insists Trump will exit by Easter 2027, yet markets give just a 6% chance he leaves office before then.

94%

YES

Politics

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Lula enters the October 4 vote as the incumbent frontrunner, and early polling backs a narrow reelection edge over his rivals.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

With his father Jair barred from running until 2030, Flávio has emerged as the Bolsonaro family's likely standard-bearer, keeping YES bid up on $8.8M volume. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES.

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia has held a Duma supermajority since 2021, with tight media control and most opposition barred from ballots ahead of the 2026 vote. Both tracked smart wallets sit on YES across $7.7M in volume.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Midterm history favors the out-party and Republicans' thin House majority makes a Democratic flip the base case. Yet all 8 tracked smart wallets hold NO, betting against the 88% crowd.

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Historic midterm losses for the sitting president's party are pricing Democrats to flip the narrow GOP majority. All 5 tracked smart wallets hold NO, aligned with $4.2M in volume.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Proposition 40, a one-time billionaire wealth tax, qualified for California's November 3, 2026 ballot, yet markets price passage at just 28%.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Coalition strain and ongoing corruption trials cloud his path to another term despite incumbency. All 3 tracked smart wallets are positioned NO on $3.1M volume, signaling consensus against a return.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Martial law bars wartime elections in Ukraine, keeping his incumbency intact despite a term that formally lapsed in 2024. All 4 tracked smart wallets sit on NO across a $3.1M market — firm consensus.

92%

YES

Politics

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Markets are split on this outcome at 46% YES. 6 smart wallets positioned YES — watch for convergence.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Markets are split on this outcome at 50% YES. 3 smart wallets positioned NO — watch for convergence.

YES

50%

Politics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House. Currently, markets are divided (38% YES, 62% NO).

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Markets are split on this outcome at 57% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $1.6M in volume.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Markets are split on this outcome at 50% YES. 4 smart wallets positioned NO — watch for convergence.

YES

50%

Politics

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 35%: Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Currently, markets are divided (35% YES, 65% NO).

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Clemency chatter followed DOJ interviews with Maxwell, but no formal pardon signal emerged. The lone smart wallet tracked here holds NO, aligning with the 94% consensus across $745K volume.

94%

YES

Politics

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Infantino has led FIFA since 2016 with no serious challenger, keeping an exit by December 31 unlikely at 18%.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Alberta's separatist petition drive under Premier Smith needs ~177K signatures to force a referendum, keeping odds low. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, in line with $256K in volume.

92%

YES

Politics

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

GenZ212 protests over health and education spending have battered Akhannouch's coalition ahead of Morocco's 2026 elections. One tracked wallet backs YES amid $167K in volume.

YES

93%

Politics

Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?

Erdoğan's term runs to 2028, and only a 60% parliamentary supermajority can trigger an early vote—an unlikely bar for 2026.

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Markets are split on this outcome at 56% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $127K in volume.

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 76%: Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election.

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Markets are split on this outcome at 52% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $107K in volume.

Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

94%

YES