Politics Prediction Markets

Live odds on 98 political prediction markets — US elections, impeachment, global leaders. Track which candidates smart money is betting on and where AI models see mispricing.

Real-time odds from Polymarket & Kalshi 5 AI models analyze every market 162 top wallets tracked on-chain
39 active markets
Politics

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO). Exclusive: Orbán challenger Magyar says electi

NO
66%
YES
34%
Politics

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Prediction markets put the probability at 66%: Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar. Currently, markets are divided (66% YES, 34% NO). Péter Magyar, once a ruling party insider who

YES
66%
NO
34%
Politics

Trump out as President before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Trump out as President before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). Trump Facts First CNN Polls 2026 Elections Redistricting T

NO
84%
YES
16%
Politics

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 42%: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets are divided (42% YES, 58% NO).

NO
58%
YES
42%
Politics

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Prediction markets put the probability at 64%: Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary. Currently, markets are divided (64% YES, 36% NO). Texas’ costly and divisive runoff system could b

YES
63%
NO
37%
Politics

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 38%: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets are divided (38% YES, 62% NO).

NO
62%
YES
38%
Politics

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

NO
93%
YES
7%
Politics

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

NO
90%
YES
10%
Politics

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Texas’ costly and divisive runoff system could

NO
64%
YES
36%
Politics

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO). California voters are likely to fac

NO
64%
YES
36%
Politics

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). | 31.03.2026 | BBC Inside RAF refuelling tanker dur

NO
93%
YES
7%
Politics

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).

YES
88%
NO
12%
Politics

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES).

NO
88%
YES
12%
Politics

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES). A long Mideast war could take away from support for

NO
84%
YES
16%
Politics

Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Hungary election poll

NO
68%
YES
32%
Politics

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 69%: Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election. Currently, markets are divided (69% YES,

YES
69%
NO
31%
Politics

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Prediction markets put the probability at 92%: Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine. Currently, markets see this as likely (92% YES). This combination of photos shows Demo

YES
92%
NO
8%
Politics

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Prediction markets put the probability at 52%: 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House. Currently, markets are divided (52% YES, 48% NO). Election 2026: Poll says Democrats wanted in Congress, Genera

YES
52%
NO
48%
Politics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Republicans are entering the 2026 midterms with a 218-214 ma

NO
88%
YES
12%
Politics

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Starmer out by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO). UK's Starmer gives doctors' union 48 hours to reconsider pay and work

YES
52%
NO
48%
Politics

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). Republicans are entering the 2026 midterms with a 218-214 maj

NO
64%
YES
36%
Politics

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Prediction markets put the probability at 52%: Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections. Currently, markets are divided (52% YES, 48% NO). Election 2026: Poll says

YES
55%
NO
45%
Politics

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 79%: Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election. Currently, markets see this as likely (79% YES). Skip to contentSkip to site index

YES
94%
NO
6%
Politics

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Prediction markets put the probability at 48%: Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections. Currently, markets are divided (48% YES, 52% NO). Skip to contentSkip to s

NO
54%
YES
46%
Politics

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 12%: Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (12% YES). Todd Blanche left a prominent Manhattan law firm to defend a t

NO
88%
YES
12%
Politics

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's

NO
93%
YES
7%
Politics

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Opinion | Always Be Posting: The New Rules for De

NO
89%
YES
11%
Politics

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). Cambodia Launches New Financial Sector Strategy To

NO
93%
YES
7%
Politics

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Prediction markets put the probability at 46%: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Currently, markets are divided (46% YES, 54% NO). Likud backlash leads Netanyahu to replace

NO
54%
YES
46%
Politics

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's president

NO
79%
YES
21%
Politics

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES). Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's president

NO
72%
YES
28%
Politics

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). In Praise of President Trump's Magnificent Victory Over Iran.

NO
94%
YES
6%
Politics

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Prediction markets put the probability at 76%: Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election. Currently, markets see this as likely (76% YES). Analysis: Nashville could be in for a competitive

YES
77%
NO
23%
Politics

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). This combination of photos shows Democra

NO
92%
YES
8%
Politics

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Democratic Chances of Flipping Flori

NO
92%
YES
8%
Politics

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Amid ongoing talks between the Trump administrat

NO
68%
YES
32%
Politics

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 84%: Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (84% YES). The Africa Cup of Nations trophy has

YES
83%
NO
17%
Politics

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Prediction markets put the probability at 91%: Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor. Currently, markets see this as likely (91% YES). Democratic Chances of Flipping Florid

YES
88%
NO
12%
Politics

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

Prediction markets put the probability at 70%: Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot. Currently, markets see this as likely (70% YES). California voters are likely to face a referendum

YES
70%
NO
30%

All Politics Markets

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
NO 72c
$2.7M
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
NO 87c
$2.2M
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
NO 74c
$1.4M
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
NO 80c
$986K
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NO 78c
$794K
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
YES 88c
$774K
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
NO 92c
$767K
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
NO 86c
$575K
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
NO 60c
$573K
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
NO 88c
$573K
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
NO 94c
$533K
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NO 82c
$504K
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
NO 94c
$492K
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
NO 56c
$470K
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
NO 85c
$450K
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
NO 94c
$376K
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
NO 94c
$345K
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
NO 82c
$317K
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
NO 93c
$287K
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
NO 92c
$242K
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
NO 92c
$232K
Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?
NO 92c
$201K
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026?
NO 70c
$192K
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
YES 63c
$183K
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
NO 81c
$173K
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
NO 92c
$171K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
YES 62c
$148K
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
NO 64c
$138K
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
NO 54c
$129K
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
NO 77c
$125K
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
YES 94c
$123K
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?
YES 51c
$120K
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
NO 91c
$114K
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
NO 52c
$113K
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
YES 65c
$112K
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
NO 86c
$107K
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
YES 84c
$107K
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
NO 82c
$106K
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
NO 78c
$98K
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
YES 55c
$93K
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
NO 86c
$93K
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
NO 88c
$87K
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
NO 70c
$84K
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
YES 88c
$83K
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
NO 62c
$81K
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
NO 66c
$77K
Another Canada election called by June 30?
NO 94c
$73K
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
YES 66c
$65K
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NO 73c
$63K
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
NO 85c
$59K
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
NO 87c
$59K
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
NO 68c
$55K
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
YES 54c
$55K
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?
NO 94c
$55K
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
YES 93c
$53K
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
NO 88c
$53K
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
NO 88c
$52K
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
NO 65c
$51K
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?
YES 92c
$50K

Browse All 492 Markets

Politics
98 markets · 39 analyzed
Sports
86 markets · 23 analyzed
Geopolitics
39 markets · 11 analyzed
Crypto
74 markets · 7 analyzed
Economics
80 markets · 12 analyzed
Science
11 markets · 1 analyzed
Other
104 markets · 7 analyzed