Weed rescheduled by December 31?

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Weed rescheduled by December 31?” at 16% YES with $200K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Weed rescheduled by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).

What’s Happening

The question of whether weed rescheduled by December 31 remains a live policy issue, with the current probability sitting at 26% YES. The most significant catalyst occurred on December 18, 2025, when President Trump issued Executive Order No. 14370 directing cannabis rescheduling. However, legal experts note that the Controlled Substances Act does not grant the president unilateral authority to reschedule a drug; changes must proceed through formal rulemaking at the DEA or an act of Congress. The White House confirmed in early December that the federal review remains "ongoing," with officials still evaluating legal and policy implications of moving cannabis to Schedule III, even as the executive order was subsequently issued [NPR, Dec 26].

Market participants are weighing a complex timeline. The executive order itself was tied to a broader corporate transaction: on December 18, 2025, The Cannabist Company accepted a $130 million superior proposal from Millstreet, terminating an earlier $110 million deal with Curaleaf. That acquisition was explicitly linked to the rescheduling directive, creating a direct financial stake in the outcome. Meanwhile, state-level actions are proceeding on parallel tracks — Ohio lawmakers amended S.B. 56 to create a temporary program allowing hemp beverages with up to 5 milligrams of THC until December 31, 2026, explicitly to align with a forthcoming federal framework [Cannabis Business Times, Mar 9].

What happens next hinges on administrative procedure. The DEA must publish a proposed rule, accept public comment, and issue a final determination — a process that historically takes months. Administrative law judge Francis Young's 1988 recommendation to move marijuana to Schedule II for chemotherapy nausea remains a historical precedent, but no modern rescheduling has occurred via executive action alone. The April 23, 2026 date has been flagged in some analyses as a potential implementation window for partial federal rescheduling, which would fall after the December 31 deadline in question. With the year-end date approaching, the 26% probability reflects the narrow procedural window remaining for a full rescheduling order to be finalized, versus the more likely scenario of an extended review or partial action in early 2026 [Britannica, Jul 23].

Traded on Polymarket — $200K Volume