Prediction markets put the probability at 27%: Weed rescheduled by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (27% YES). The president issued the executive order on Dec.
The question of whether weed rescheduled by December 31 will be resolved turns on a rulemaking process that remains formally incomplete. On December 18, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled "Increasing Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research," directing the Attorney General to "take all necessary steps to complete the rulemaking process related to rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III" of the Controlled Substances Act "in the most expeditious manner." The order does not itself legalize or decriminalize marijuana; it instructs the DEA to finish the administrative reclassification. Earlier that month, a White House spokesperson had confirmed the federal review was "ongoing," walking back suggestions of an imminent decision. [Dentons, Dec 02]
The distinction between the executive order and an actual reschedule is central to the market. As of February 2026, marijuana remained a Schedule I drug under federal law, meaning the directive had not yet translated into a completed rule. Reclassification to Schedule III requires the DEA to advance formal rulemaking, including hearings and public comment, before any change takes legal effect. Business observers in states such as Oklahoma noted the order triggered widespread questions and misconceptions about its immediate practical impact, which for now is limited. [Oklahoman, Dec 31]
Whether weed rescheduled by December 31 resolves affirmatively depends on the DEA clearing its contested hearing phase. In late July 2026, a formal DEA hearing convened in Arlington, Virginia, where Humboldt County Sheriff William Honsal testified against rescheduling on behalf of Nebraska, Idaho and Indiana, underscoring active opposition from law-enforcement and several state governments. That contested posture signals the process could extend further before a final rule is issued, keeping the timeline for a completed reschedule uncertain. [Lost Coast Outpost, Jul 22]
Polymarket prices this at 27c YES with $187K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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