Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?'?

As of July 2026, prediction markets price this at 86% YES on Polymarket with $54K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

86c

14c

Prediction markets give a 86% probability to: will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31, 2026?.

Currently at 86%

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 86c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 14c

Smart money entered NO at 5c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 5c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$2.1K	+126%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 14c (+126%), $2.1K on NO Activity · 3 events · Jun 30 → Jul 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 30BUYNO7+$16$16 Jul 01BUYNO5+$622$635 Jul 02BUYNO7+$144$1,049 Realized— Unrealized+$1,327 Total Profit+$1,327 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1230) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 5c. At current price 86c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 32 Cents

Significant 32-cent gap: Polymarket at 86c vs Kalshi at 54c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 86c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	86c	$54K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	86c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

As of July 2026, Polymarket prices this at 86% YES with $54K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.