Iran's crude exports have topped 40 million barrels since the U.S. blockade ended, pushing Hormuz shipping back toward normal daily volumes.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded sharply after the United States removed its naval blockade in mid-June, a shift that directly bears on whether 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31, 2026. Iran said it has exported more than 40 million barrels of crude since the blockade lifted roughly two weeks earlier, reportedly securing a 20% premium on those sales. Under a memorandum of understanding with Washington, Iran agreed to let commercial vessels transit the waterway toll-free for 60 days, while insisting it retains administrative control over the passage. [CNBC, Jul 01]
The recovery has been reinforced by a U.S. military presence: naval forces began escorting and protecting supertanker transits, particularly along the Omani corridor that hugs Oman's coast. On Sunday, July 5, six oil and gas freighters were observed on the Oman-side route, a day after a batch of vessels executed unexplained U-turns to avoid Iran's military. The escort presence has provided what analysts describe as a confidence boost for traffic, though a fragile ceasefire and persistent naval friction keep daily flows volatile — the key variable for whether 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31, 2026. [Fortune, Jul 05]
The near-term risk centers on what replaces the toll-free window once it expires. Iran is pushing a toll plan, with officials arguing it is "unreasonable" for ships to pass without authorization, and an Iranian envoy said friendly nations would receive "special" fee treatment. U.S. and Iranian technical teams held separate talks with Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Doha over the dispute. What follows the 60-day free period remains unclear, leaving throughput dependent on both diplomacy and the durability of U.S. naval escorts. [Times of Israel, Jul 04]
Polymarket prices this at 82c YES with $231K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money entered NO at 8c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 8c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $2.9K | +70% |
NO wallets entered at 8c. At current price 82c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Significant 28-cent gap: Polymarket at 82c vs Kalshi at 54c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 82c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 82c | $231K |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 82c | — |