Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 28%: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (28% YES).

What’s Happening

The Abraham Accords, initially signed in September 2020, have seen a significant deepening of military and economic ties between Israel and existing member states, particularly the United Arab Emirates. During the recent conflict with Iran, Israel deployed an Iron Dome air defense battery and dozens of IDF troops to the UAE for the first time, a move confirmed by Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev. This operational deployment marks the first time the missile defense system has been used outside of Israel or the United States, signaling a new era of Gulf-Israeli security cooperation. Concurrently, President Trump declared a national emergency in July 2026 to suspend duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, reinforcing economic ties with a key Abraham Accords partner while addressing U.S. food security concerns. These developments underscore the growing strategic integration among signatories, creating a more favorable environment for potential new members to consider joining the framework. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 05]

The question of whether a new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 remains a central topic in diplomatic circles, with current assessments placing the probability at 28%. The recent conflict with Iran, during which Tehran fired hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE, has paradoxically accelerated military cooperation between Israel and Gulf states. The Iron Dome deployment, confirmed by The Jerusalem Post, demonstrates that the security architecture envisioned by the Accords is now operational, potentially lowering barriers for nations like Saudi Arabia or Sudan to formalize ties. Additionally, the appointment of Iran-born Ellie Cohanim as Senior Policy Advisor at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in July 2026 signals continued American diplomatic focus on expanding the Accords. The Trump administration's trade policies, including the phosphate tariff suspension for Morocco, also serve as economic incentives for other nations to normalize relations with Israel. [The Jerusalem Post, Jul 05]

Looking ahead, the window for a new country to join the Abraham Accords before 2027 remains open but faces significant geopolitical hurdles. The deepening Israel-UAE military partnership, including the Iron Dome deployment and intelligence sharing during the Iran war, creates a precedent for security guarantees that could attract hesitant nations. However, the recent decision by Canada to join the Eurovision Song Contest in 2027—becoming the first new member since Australia in 2015—highlights how international alliances are evolving in parallel, though it is unrelated to Middle East diplomacy. For the Accords, the key variable remains whether a major Arab nation, such as Saudi Arabia, will take the step of formal normalization. The combination of U.S. economic incentives, demonstrated military cooperation, and the ongoing Iran threat may accelerate this process, but domestic political considerations in potential member states continue to pose obstacles. [BBC News, Jul 01]

Traded on Polymarket — $204K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 27c YES with $204K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.