Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 55%: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets are divided (55% YES, 45% NO).

What’s Happening

The probability that a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 now stands at 55%, reflecting a geopolitical landscape reshaped by the ongoing Iran war. Recent reporting indicates that the United Arab Emirates, a foundational signatory of the 2020 accords, is actively reassessing its regional alliances due to dissatisfaction with traditional Arab partners' stances on the conflict. Israeli officials have described this as an "unprecedented opportunity" to deepen ties, with the UAE's distancing from certain allies creating diplomatic space for additional normalization. The war has effectively cracked longstanding Middle East alliances, making the prospect of a new country join the Abraham Accords more plausible as nations seek pragmatic security and economic partnerships outside the traditional Arab consensus. [CNN, May 01]

Simultaneously, Israel is expanding the accords' geographic scope beyond the Middle East. President Isaac Herzog's recent visit to Kazakhstan, following that country's association with the Abraham Accords, signals a strategic pivot toward Central Asia. Analysts view this as evidence that the normalization framework is evolving into a platform for pragmatic cooperation with middle powers seeking flexible alliances amid global disorder. This broadening of the accords' definition—from a strictly Arab-Israeli normalization tool to a wider network of diplomatic and economic ties—increases the pool of potential new signatories. The shift is further underscored by Israel's focus on countering Iranian influence in regions like the Red Sea, where Sudan has emerged as a contested logistical corridor for Iranian-linked shadow infrastructure. [Ynetnews, May 01]

Looking ahead, the timeline to 2027 will depend on whether diplomatic momentum can translate into a formal accession. The recent surge in signings of the Artemis Accords—with Malta becoming the 65th and Ireland the 66th nation on May 4, 2026—demonstrates that multilateral agreement frameworks are attracting new members, though the Abraham Accords remain a distinct bilateral normalization process. Key variables include the trajectory of the Iran war, which continues to fracture traditional alliances, and Israel's ability to convert its newfound openings in Central Asia and the Gulf into concrete agreements. Any new signatory would likely be a non-Arab Muslim-majority state or a smaller Arab nation seeking security guarantees and economic benefits, though no formal negotiations have been publicly confirmed. [NASA, May 04]

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