Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO).

What’s Happening

The probability that a new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 now stands at 34% YES, reflecting a volatile geopolitical landscape shaped by the ongoing Iran conflict. On May 25, 2026, President Donald Trump stated that any agreement to end the Iran war should include a requirement for several additional countries, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to join the Abraham Accords, the U.S.-brokered agreements from his first term aimed at normalizing relations with Israel. Trump said in a social media post that negotiations are “proceeding nicely” but tied any eventual agreement to expanded participation in the 2020 accords, which were first signed on September 15, 2020, between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, with Morocco and Sudan later joining [Kfyrtv, May 25].

The diplomatic push comes amid escalating military actions, as Iran condemned U.S. strikes on May 26, 2026 as a show of “bad faith” and warned of consequences, calling the strikes a ceasefire violation. This tension has not deterred proponents of expansion; Senator Lindsey Graham called the potential inclusion of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan in the Abraham Accords “beyond transformative for the region and world,” describing it as a “brilliant move” by Trump. Meanwhile, a former Indian diplomat, Ashok Sajjanhar, suggested that Turkey may join the Abraham Accords through a “give-and-take” arrangement, though he noted that damage to critical energy infrastructure means global supply chains may not fully normalize until early 2027 [The Tribune, May 27].

The core question of whether a new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 hinges on the outcome of U.S.-Iran negotiations, with officials from both sides having agreed to broad principles of a deal as of May 22, 2026. Trump has insisted that “time is on our side,” but analysts note that the accords face structural hurdles, including regional distrust and the unresolved status of Palestinian statehood, which The Times of India argues may doom the expansion push. The next steps involve formalizing the Iran deal framework, which could unlock simultaneous accession talks for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, while Turkey’s potential entry remains conditional on broader security and energy trade-offs [Times of India, May 27].

Traded on Polymarket — $278K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 34c YES with $278K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.