Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES). US-Iran deal scheduled to be signed on Sunday, says Trump.

What’s Happening

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Tuesday, June 16 that ending the war with the United States and Israel "would not be completed" without Israel's withdrawal from territories occupied in southern Lebanon during the conflict, complicating the diplomatic track toward a planned Friday signing of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding. The condition, voiced after President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that Washington and Tehran had reached a "great deal," introduced a new linkage between the bilateral US-Iran agreement and Israeli military posture in Lebanon, a variable not previously cited as central to the signing timeline. [ABC News, Jun 16]

The question of whether Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran signing ceremony in person was complicated earlier by his own remarks on June 12, when he told reporters the draft agreement would be signed "remotely" once final negotiation stages closed, according to Reuters sourcing cited by Il Sole 24 Ore. Araghchi separately told The Jerusalem Post that nuclear talks with Washington would not begin without implementation of the interim deal, and indicated the Strait of Hormuz would remain under sole Iranian-Omani sovereignty. The UAE concurrently released billions of dollars in unfrozen Iranian funds, a confidence-building measure described as unprecedented. [Il Sole 24 Ore, Jun 12]

Resolution will hinge on whether the Friday signing proceeds as a formal in-person ceremony or as the remote exchange Araghchi described on June 12, and on whether Tehran's late-stage Lebanon withdrawal demand stalls the timeline entirely. Trump's June 13 statement that the Strait of Hormuz would be "open to all" post-deal set US expectations of imminent closure, but Iranian officials have repeatedly cast doubt on the precise date. Whether Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran signing ceremony physically depends on the format Washington and Tehran ultimately agree, and on Israeli movements in southern Lebanon ahead of the deadline. [BBC, Jun 13]

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