Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 9%: Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (9% YES). U.S.-Iran deal expected to reopen Strait of Hormuz could be signed within days, both sides say.

What’s Happening

On June 16, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the U.S.–Iran memorandum of understanding was due to be signed on Friday, following President Donald Trump's weekend announcement that the two sides had reached a "great deal" aimed at ending the war launched on Feb. 28 and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on June 13 that mediators had agreed on the wording of the framework, with officials describing the document as a staged de-escalation rather than a comprehensive nuclear settlement. [ABC News, Jun 16]

Araghchi has publicly tied any final agreement to Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon, arguing that ending hostilities "would not be completed" without it — a condition not addressed in the current MOU text. Hezbollah said on June 16 it had received guarantees from Tehran that Iran will not sign a final nuclear accord with Washington absent that withdrawal, signaling pressure from regional proxies on the negotiating timeline. U.S. and Iranian officials have offered differing accounts of the document's contents, and analysts caution that any move by Abbas Araghchi to sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31 still depends on Israeli compliance with terms it has not formally accepted. [Ynetnews, Jun 16]

The structural question for whether Abbas Araghchi will sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31 is whether the current MOU on Hormuz access advances into a binding bilateral signing or stalls over the Lebanon and nuclear-enrichment files. Trump said on June 13 the deal was "scheduled to get signed tomorrow," yet successive signing dates have slipped as Tehran insists on linking the war's conclusion to Israeli troop withdrawals from southern Lebanon. With roughly six weeks remaining before the July 31 deadline and mediators still finalizing language, resolution hinges on whether Washington can decouple the MOU from the broader regional file before the window closes. [NBC News, Jun 13]

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