Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?

As of November 5, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?” at 58% YES with $52K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 58%: Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (58% YES, 42% NO).

What’s Happening

Anthropic filed its Form S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, setting up what Zacks called the most anticipated IPO of the year after SpaceX. The October 26 prospectus disclosed $16.3 billion in revenue against an $80.7 billion net loss, with second-quarter compute spending of $5.6 billion on $11.6 billion in revenue. Reuters initially reported that marketing could begin in mid-October ahead of the November midterms, but expectations later shifted toward a listing later in November. The Anthropic IPO by November 25 remains the focal point for investors seeking pure-play AI exposure. [Zacks, Aug 25]

Market-implied odds have repriced sharply. Polymarket data synced November 2 showed the November 25 contract at 82%, with $6.22 million in volume and $612,520 in open interest. By November 5, the Anthropic IPO by November 25 market had fallen to 62.5%, according to FourWeekMBA, after a single-hour drop between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC that also pulled the year-end contract from 90.1% to 79.3%. The move echoed prior episodes when listing timelines slipped: last time a marquee AI issuer missed its marketing window, forward-valuation spreads widened before stabilizing. [CryptoSlate, Oct 25]

Attention now centers on whether Anthropic can complete a public listing before the November 25, 2026 contract date. KraneShares noted that expectations still place an Anthropic IPO in 2026 but later in November, leaving a narrow window for pricing and allocation. With the S-1 on file and revenue disclosed, the remaining variables are market conditions and investor demand for a loss-making frontier AI issuer. The Anthropic IPO by November 25 thus functions as a timing barometer for the broader AI capital cycle. [KraneShares, Sep 25]

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume