Economics: AI verdicts on 18 Polymarket markets

18 economics markets carry an AI verdict — BUY YES, BUY NO or HOLD — because a tracked wallet holds a position; 40 more are tracked with live price and volume only. Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, recession odds.

One verdict per market a tracked wallet holds 3 math models + up to 5 AI models behind it 166 tracked wallets tiered daily by their record
Economics

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Fed officials have signaled patience on cuts amid sticky inflation, keeping a hold in October as the base case. Two tracked wallets with a strong historical record are aligned on YES, reinforcing the 70% consensus.

YES
82%
NO
18%
+22c edge $502K from 7 tracked wallets +5% potential
Economics

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting.

NO
84%
YES
16%
+17c edge $165K from 5 tracked wallets +14% potential
Economics

US recession by end of 2026?

Resilient labor data and easing inflation keep recession fears muted heading into year-end. All three tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $1.7M volume — a firm bet on continued expansion.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+13c edge $69K from 7 tracked wallets ★1 +2% potential
Economics

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Anthropic's enterprise API revenue reportedly tripled in Q3, narrowing the gap with OpenAI's valuation trajectory. One high-accuracy wallet holds a YES position, while $972K in volume shows sustained conviction despite thin smart-money participation.

YES
53%
NO
47%
+6c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +76% potential
Economics

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 82c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

YES
82%
NO
18%
+5c edge $22K from 3 tracked wallets +15% potential
Economics

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting.

YES
74%
NO
26%
-6c edge $7K from 2 tracked wallets +248% potential
Economics

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting. Currently, markets are divided (44% YES, 56% NO).

NO
76%
YES
24%
-13c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +277% potential
Economics

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 76c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

YES
76%
NO
24%
+12c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +277% potential
Economics

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 69c. 2 smart wallets tracked.

YES
69%
NO
31%
+4c edge $4K from 2 tracked wallets +38% potential
Economics

Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 24c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

NO
76%
YES
24%
0c edge $13K from 3 tracked wallets +24% potential
Economics

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 70c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

YES
70%
NO
30%
+6c edge $1K from 1 tracked wallet +36% potential
Economics

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

NO
86%
YES
14%
+11c edge $6K from 3 tracked wallets ★1 +11% potential
Economics

Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).

YES
66%
NO
34%
-6c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +169% potential
Economics

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Saylor’s public Bitcoin advocacy and SEC scrutiny have not produced any formal charges, keeping odds low. One smart wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the $73K volume trend against a federal case.

NO
94%
YES
6%
+4c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +1% potential
Economics

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 12c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
88%
YES
12%
+25c edge $14K from 1 tracked wallet +8% potential
Economics

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 7c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
93%
YES
7%
+4c edge $19K from 1 tracked wallet +2% potential
Economics

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 16c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
84%
YES
16%
+1c edge $9K from 1 tracked wallet +12% potential
Economics

Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 42c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

NO
58%
YES
42%
+19c edge $3K from 1 tracked wallet +115% potential

Also tracked — no verdict yet (40)

No tracked wallet holds a position on these markets, so the Radar makes no call; price and volume are live.

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
NO 90c
$2.4M
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
NO 94c
$2.4M
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
NO 87c
$1.7M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
NO 82c
$1.4M
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YES 88c
$1.3M
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
NO 94c
$1.2M
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
NO 92c
$986K
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
NO 54c
$924K
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
YES 84c
$630K
Discord IPO before 2027?
NO 94c
$488K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
YES 68c
$446K
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
NO 94c
$431K
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
YES 65c
$330K
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?
NO 92c
$285K
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?
NO 93c
$259K
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
NO 58c
$245K
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
YES 64c
$200K
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
NO 76c
$174K
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
NO 51c
$151K
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?
YES 78c
$141K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
YES 77c
$140K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
NO 80c
$140K
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
NO 90c
$133K
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
YES 92c
$131K
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
NO 88c
$121K
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?
NO 87c
$118K
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
YES 80c
$106K
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
NO 72c
$102K
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
NO 84c
$95K
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
NO 94c
$94K
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
YES 74c
$91K
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
NO 90c
$91K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
NO 93c
$81K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
NO 68c
$79K
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?
NO 66c
$76K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?
YES 64c
$74K
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?
NO 94c
$66K
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
NO 80c
$61K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
NO 69c
$55K
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
YES 78c
$54K

Browse by category

Politics
43 with a verdict · 133 tracked
US elections, impeachment odds, global leaders
Sports
1 with a verdict · 61 tracked
NBA Finals, World Cup 2026, Champions League, F1
Geopolitics
46 with a verdict · 128 tracked
Regime change, ceasefire timelines, sanctions
Crypto
8 with a verdict · 96 tracked
Bitcoin price targets, ETF approvals, DeFi events
Economics
18 with a verdict · 58 tracked
Fed rate decisions, inflation, recession odds
Other
31 with a verdict · 1584 tracked
Tech acquisitions, product launches, cultural events