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Economics Prediction Markets

Live odds on 99 economics prediction markets — Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, recession odds. Smart money and AI models track the macro events that matter.

Real-time odds from Polymarket & Kalshi 5 AI models analyze every market 166 top wallets tracked on-chain
Economics

US recession by end of 2026?

Dimon's warnings on debt refinancing and real estate stress are real, but markets price 76% NO — labor and consumer spending haven't cracked yet.

NO
78%
YES
22%
+8c edge $41K from 4 alpha ★1 +23% potential
Economics

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).

YES
88%
NO
12%
0c edge $7K from 1 alpha +300% potential
Economics

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Markets price 40% odds of a 2026 hike despite Warsh and Trump pushing for cuts, as accelerating post-Iran inflation forces traders to hedge.

NO
64%
YES
36%
0c edge $1K from 1 alpha +47% potential
Economics

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Nomura now forecasts zero Fed cuts in 2026 as inflation reaccelerates, and traders agree—84% NO odds price in a hold-the-line year.

NO
82%
YES
18%
+12c edge $2K from 1 alpha +15% potential
Economics

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Nomura's no-cut forecast aligns with bond traders pricing in zero 2026 easing, and the market echoes it at 92% NO.

NO
92%
YES
8%
+11c edge $2K from 1 alpha ★1 +3% potential
Economics

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 68%: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31. Currently, markets are divided (68% YES, 32% NO).

YES
68%
NO
32%
0c edge $2K from 1 alpha +181% potential
Economics

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

NO
94%
YES
6%
+69c edge $12K from 1 alpha +1% potential
Economics

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

NO
86%
YES
14%
+70c edge $17K from 2 alpha +10% potential
Economics

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

NO
92%
YES
8%
-3c edge $3K from 1 alpha +3% potential

All Economics Markets

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
NO 76c
$7.9M
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YES 68c
$4.4M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
NO 95c
$3.6M
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
NO 74c
$2.4M
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?
NO 62c
$1.7M
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
NO 93c
$1.6M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
NO 70c
$1.4M
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?
NO 80c
$1.2M
Will BP be acquired before 2027?
NO 86c
$1.1M
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
NO 86c
$970K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
YES 92c
$822K
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
NO 82c
$667K
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
NO 92c
$636K
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
NO 80c
$592K
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
NO 76c
$568K
OKX IPO in 2026?
NO 88c
$556K
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
NO 68c
$528K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
NO 57c
$519K
Ledger IPO before 2027?
NO 88c
$511K
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
NO 86c
$502K
Databricks IPO before 2027?
NO 80c
$470K
Discord IPO before 2027?
YES 66c
$453K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
NO 94c
$414K
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?
NO 80c
$397K
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
NO 90c
$370K
Anduril IPO before 2027?
NO 89c
$352K
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
NO 72c
$319K
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
NO 91c
$312K
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
NO 72c
$281K
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
NO 82c
$280K
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
YES 62c
$274K
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?
YES 77c
$271K
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
YES 76c
$258K
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?
NO 64c
$255K
Stripe IPO before 2027?
NO 90c
$251K
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
NO 88c
$245K
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
YES 76c
$244K
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
YES 86c
$243K
Celonis IPO before 2027?
NO 91c
$208K
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?
YES 86c
$206K
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?
YES 82c
$195K
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
NO 86c
$193K
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?
YES 82c
$189K
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
NO 85c
$189K
Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026?
NO 92c
$169K
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
YES 84c
$167K
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026?
NO 75c
$166K
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
NO 88c
$162K
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
NO 92c
$151K
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?
NO 84c
$149K
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
NO 68c
$149K
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
NO 89c
$148K
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?
NO 86c
$146K
Ramp IPO before 2027?
NO 90c
$144K
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
NO 82c
$139K
Vanta IPO before 2027?
NO 92c
$130K
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
YES 52c
$128K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
NO 95c
$124K
Deel IPO before 2027?
NO 92c
$124K
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
NO 94c
$123K
Rippling IPO before 2027?
NO 83c
$118K
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
YES 82c
$114K
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
NO 72c
$114K
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?
NO 76c
$112K
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
NO 95c
$107K
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
NO 91c
$106K
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
NO 78c
$105K
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
NO 88c
$105K
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
NO 60c
$101K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
NO 95c
$101K
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
NO 87c
$99K
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?
NO 94c
$97K
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?
NO 90c
$87K
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?
NO 65c
$85K
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?
NO 90c
$81K
SHEIN IPO before 2027?
NO 86c
$78K
Epic Games IPO before 2027?
NO 88c
$75K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
NO 76c
$73K
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
NO 94c
$68K
Canada recession before 2027?
NO 82c
$67K
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026?
YES 66c
$66K
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
NO 84c
$62K
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
YES 81c
$59K
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
NO 81c
$58K
Revolut IPO before 2027?
NO 92c
$57K
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?
YES 60c
$55K
Remote IPO before 2027?
NO 62c
$54K
Waymo IPO before 2027?
NO 94c
$52K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
NO 94c
$52K
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
NO 86c
$51K

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