Economics Prediction Markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

With inflation easing toward target, traders expect the Fed to hold rates steady in September rather than resume cuts. All 9 tracked smart wallets sit on YES, backed by $10.1M in volume.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Traders lean toward a Fed hold in September, keeping hike odds near 30% amid the cooling-inflation debate. The single tracked smart wallet sits NO, matching the $9.3M in volume tilting against a hike.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Persistent inflation and a resilient labor market have kept a hike in play despite earlier cut bets, splitting the market near 56/44. All 5 tracked smart wallets back YES, aligning with the $7.9M in volume.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Sticky inflation and a hawkish Fed kept rates on hold through mid-2026. Both tracked smart wallets sit on NO — a contrarian bet that at least one cut still lands this year.

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES).

US recession by end of 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: US recession by end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

92%

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Traders are pricing a Fed hold into the September meeting, leaning roughly two-to-one against tightening. All 6 tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO across $896K in volume, reinforcing the hold thesis.

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Reported funding rounds pushing Anthropic's valuation past $180B have fueled IPO speculation, lifting YES 10+ points. A single tracked wallet sits YES, and $552K volume signals conviction over a coin-flip. Character count: ~197.

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Traders are pricing the Fed to hold steady into the fall, leaving a hike the minority outcome. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit YES on $493K volume, betting against the crowd.

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Financial Times reported Anthropic could launch its IPO as soon as October 2026 near a $1 trillion valuation, supporting the 88% YES.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Altman has repeatedly signaled no near-term IPO as OpenAI digests its for-profit restructuring. The single tracked wallet sits NO, aligning with the 83% consensus across $467K in volume.

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Soaring valuation and repeated mega-funding rounds keep IPO speculation high. Both tracked smart wallets hold YES positions, with $464K in volume reinforcing the tilt.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

OpenAI has filed no S-1 and Altman has called a public listing not a near-term priority after its recent restructuring. The single tracked wallet sits YES, aligning with the $453K volume lean.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Fed held steady in Jun–Jul, and $340K volume prices continuity through Sep. The lone tracked wallet bets YES on a shift — thin, contrarian signal against a 68% NO majority.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

With five weeks left, no filing or board vote has surfaced and Musk has floated but never formalized a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up. The lone tracked wallet holds NO, matching $338K of volume against it.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Markets expect steady policy as inflation cools, making three straight unchanged Fed decisions the base case. The single tracked smart wallet holds NO, and $311K in volume leans the same direction.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

OpenAI remains privately held with no filed IPO timeline, and Altman has downplayed any near-term listing. The single tracked wallet across $298K volume sits NO, aligning with the 85% skew.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Fed held steady in June and July as inflation cooled, leaving a third straight September pause needed to complete the streak. Both tracked smart wallets took NO on $298K volume, betting the run breaks.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

July's hold banked the first of three pauses; September and October now decide it. Just one tracked wallet is positioned YES, so the 57% lean rests on $239K volume more than smart-money conviction.

Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Ripple Labs IPO before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31.

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?

Markets strongly favor this outcome at 93% YES. 1 tracked wallet with $88K in volume.

93%

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES).