Economics Prediction Markets

Live odds on 87 economics prediction markets — Fed rate decisions, inflation targets, recession odds. Smart money and AI models track the macro events that matter.

Real-time odds from Polymarket & Kalshi 5 AI models analyze every market 166 top wallets tracked on-chain

All ★ Best Bets 4 Politics 24 Geopolitics 37 Economics 22 Crypto 10 Sports 4 Science 2 Other 33

22 analyzed · 87 total

Economics

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Fed minutes show a divided FOMC does not anticipate a cut before early 2027, making a July rate hold the base case at 78%.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

June FOMC minutes show a divided Fed leaning toward rate hikes to curb inflation, but markets see a July increase as unlikely.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The FOMC's June minutes show a divided Fed expecting no rate cut before early 2027, with soft jobs data and easing oil prices reinforcing the pause.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Betting has tilted toward tighter policy as $3.6M in volume piles into the 2026 Fed path debate. Both tracked smart-money wallets sit on NO, wagering against another hike despite the crowd's 60% lean.

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Sticky inflation and a resilient labor market keep the Fed on hold, pricing near-zero odds of even one 2026 cut. Both tracked smart wallets sit NO, backed by $2M in volume.

US recession by end of 2026?

Resilient job growth and cooling inflation have kept recession fears muted heading into H2 2026. All 3 tracked smart wallets sit NO on $1.7M volume, signaling confidence in continued expansion.

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Nvidia's stock is up just 4.5% this year, and fading AI-beneficiary sentiment leaves its title as the world's most valuable company genuinely contested.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Fed officials signaled one rate hike then a pause, leaving September 25 bps odds at just 38% with markets favoring no change.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Altman keeps saying an IPO isn't a priority as OpenAI leans on private mega-rounds after its 2025 for-profit restructuring. The single tracked smart wallet sits NO, aligned with the 76% skew on $414K volume.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

No S-1 filed and Sam Altman keeps downplaying a near-term listing amid OpenAI's for-profit restructuring. Only one tracked wallet holds NO — a lone contrarian bet an IPO still lands by year-end.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Recent inflation prints keep Fed policymakers cautious, tilting the September meeting toward a hold. The lone tracked smart wallet sits NO on $406K volume — betting on a rate move against the crowd.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

OpenAI's for-profit restructuring keeps an IPO possible, but Altman has flagged no near-term listing at a $1t valuation on this timeline. The one tracked wallet holds NO across $293K in volume.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027.

94%

YES

Economics

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Fed's hold-to-cut stance keeps a hike off the table barring an inflation resurgence before July. The single tracked smart wallet and $286K in volume both lean NO.

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed signals keep an autumn tightening live, holding the market near a coin flip. Both smart wallets tracking this sit YES, and $178K in volume tilts toward a hike.

Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?

Garlinghouse has repeatedly downplayed near-term IPO plans, citing Ripple's cash-rich balance sheet after its SEC settlement. The single tracked wallet holds NO on $151K volume.

92%

YES

Economics

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Musk has floated uniting his ventures, but SpaceX stays private with no formal board filing and a tight September 30 deadline. The lone tracked wallet and $143K in volume both sit on NO.

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Sticky inflation has kept the Fed on hold, pushing the consecutive-pause scenario to a strong favorite. Both smart wallets tracked here fade that view, positioned NO against $140K in volume.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Traders expect the Fed to stay the course across the April, June and July meetings after recent holds. Only one smart wallet backs a policy shift, while the bulk of $120K volume favors continuity.

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Fed held rates steady through mid-2026, leaving traders split on whether Jul, Sep, or Oct breaks the pattern. The lone smart wallet sits NO on $88K volume, betting on continuity.

YES

50%

Economics

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Musk has floated combining his ventures, but no board vote or SEC filing points to a formal tie-up. Only one tracked wallet is positioned, sitting NO, and $72K volume signals thin conviction either way.

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Saylor's 2024 DC tax-fraud case ended in a $40M civil settlement with no criminal referral, keeping federal-charge odds low. Thin $55K volume and the lone tracked wallet both sit NO.

94%

YES