Economics: AI verdicts on 22 Polymarket markets

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

The Fed weighs cooling inflation against labor-market softness heading into its September meeting, tilting odds toward holding rates steady. All 10 tracked smart wallets are positioned YES, backed by $21.2M in volume.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Mixed inflation and cooling labor data have traders leaning toward a Fed hold, keeping NO 16 points ahead. Both tracked smart wallets sit on NO, backed by $17.4M in volume.

50%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Sticky inflation and recent hawkish Fed commentary keep a 2026 hike in play. All five tracked smart wallets are positioned YES, with $8.5M in volume backing that conviction.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Sticky inflation has kept the Fed on hold at every 2026 meeting, with officials signaling no urgency to cut. Both tracked wallets back YES, aligned with $7.9M in volume.

93%

US recession by end of 2026?

Resilient labor data and easing inflation keep recession fears muted heading into year-end. All three tracked smart wallets hold NO, backed by $1.7M volume — a firm bet on continued expansion.

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed commentary keep a September hike on the table despite market doubts. Six tracked smart wallets hold YES, betting against the crowd's 58% no-hike lean.

50%

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Anthropic's enterprise API revenue reportedly tripled in Q3, narrowing the gap with OpenAI's valuation trajectory. One high-accuracy wallet holds a YES position, while $972K in volume shows sustained conviction despite thin smart-money participation.

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES).

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 56%: Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting. Currently, markets are divided (56% YES, 44% NO).

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 94c. 3 smart wallets tracked.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

OpenAI’s $40B SoftBank-led round and rapid commercialization keep IPO pressure low, while regulatory scrutiny delays any filing. One tracked wallet holds a YES position, aligning with the 92% consensus despite thin smart-money participation.

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Economics market on Polymarket. Current YES price: 94c. 1 smart wallets tracked.

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

OpenAI’s board remains divided, with Altman targeting late 2026 but Friar blocking on readiness, so an IPO before 2027 is unlikely at 8% odds.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES).

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Fed officials have signaled patience on cuts amid sticky inflation, keeping a hold in October as the base case. Two tracked wallets with a strong historical record are aligned on YES, reinforcing the 70% consensus.

Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?

Ripple Labs has not filed for an IPO, and its SEC lawsuit history plus ongoing regulatory uncertainty make a pre-2027 listing unlikely at current 6% odds.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES).

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting. Currently, markets are divided (44% YES, 56% NO).

Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 57%: Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (57% YES, 43% NO).

Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?

Saylor’s public Bitcoin advocacy and SEC scrutiny have not produced any formal charges, keeping odds low. One smart wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the $73K volume trend against a federal case.

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

Google search trends show no major Avengers: Doomsday trailer or release event driving sustained queries this year. One tracked wallet holds a NO position, aligning with the 91% consensus despite $54K in trading volume.