AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
90%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
78%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet holds only NO entries at 42c, signaling conviction that Anthropic will not IPO by the deadline. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the bearish thesis. This positioning implies informed traders are aligned against a near-term IPO, reinforcing the 5c YES price as a low-probability outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $2.3K | +76% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,205 on $2.3K capital deployed (avg +138.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $247.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |