Prediction markets put the probability at 26%: Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (26% YES).
Polymarket prices this at 26c YES with $391K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 19c vs market 26c. BUY NO at 26c — models see 7c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 64c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 88c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 38% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 78c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 74c | 74% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (64–98c vs 74c). Claude Analysis leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 81c — market prices it at 74c. 7-point gap supports NO.
Smart money is unanimously short this event, with the tracked wallet holding NO from 44c and pressing the fade as odds fall. Their positioning signals conviction that Iran will not impose Hormuz transit fees before the October 31 deadline — consistent with the structural status-quo NO edge seen across diplomatic and escalation markets. The absence of any YES entry underscores one-directional smart-money flow toward resolution NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $2.7K | +68% |
The lone tracked wallet sits entirely on NO, entered at 44c and now 100% in profit as YES has slipped to 26c — a ~18-point unrealized gain on the fade. No YES-side smart money is positioned in profit, meaning the current price offers no informed support underneath it. The move from 44c to 26c reflects steady conviction bleeding out of the YES thesis.
Polymarket prices YES at 26c with $391K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 19c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26c | $391K |
| Our Model | 19c | — |