As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?” at 64% YES with $724K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES). Pricing implies Anthropic is likely to have exchange-listed shares trading by October 31, 2026, not merely to announce an IPO.
Trading contracts tied to an Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026, currently price an 88% probability that the artificial intelligence company will complete a public-exchange listing and open trading within that window, rather than merely announcing an initial public offering. The dated contracts treat a fully executed listing as the relevant event, with catalysts including the public release of its S-1 prospectus after Labor Day and new institutional order flow around filing news. Anthropic confidentially submitted its S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 1, 2026, and multiple investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, are reportedly in early discussions as lead underwriters for a targeted October listing [Cryptoslate, Jul 16].
The market’s pricing reflects a sharp acceleration in Anthropic’s timeline since late March, when Bloomberg first reported the company was targeting a listing as early as October 2026, though no S-1 had been filed at that point. By mid-August, six investors told the Financial Times that the listing could be valued at $2 trillion, which would eclipse the record set by SpaceX’s June 2026 debut and make Anthropic the largest IPO in history. The valuation push coincides with a broader market environment where AI-related equities have commanded premium multiples, though the sheer scale of a $2 trillion float would test public-market appetite for trillions in concentrated artificial intelligence exposure [Fortune, Aug 13].
The key risk to the 88% yes probability remains execution timing within a narrow fall window, as the company has not publicly confirmed a listing date and the S-1 remains confidential. Historical precedent suggests that large technology IPOs often slip by several weeks during SEC review, particularly when valuations approach the trillion-dollar threshold and underwriters must calibrate demand across global institutional investors. The Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026, outcome will hinge on whether the company can convert its confidential filing into a public prospectus and complete roadshow logistics within roughly eight weeks, a compressed schedule for a deal of this magnitude. The Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026, contracts will likely react sharply to any formal announcement of a public S-1 date or underwriter syndicate confirmation [Thinkmarkets, Jun 08].
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. BUY YES at 64c — models see 16c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 58c | 40% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 76c | 72% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 72c | 65% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (72–98c vs 64c). Gemini Flash leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 80c — market prices it at 64c. 16-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet accumulated YES exclusively at 45c, indicating a deliberate, early conviction bet on an IPO by the deadline. This entry point, well below the current market price, signals smart money anticipated upward repricing and likely holds a long-term view. Their uniform positioning without NO hedges suggests confidence in the catalyst, though the lack of diversification leaves them exposed to event risk.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.5K | +28% |
All tracked YES positions are in profit, with entries at 45c against a current price of 64c, implying a 42% unrealized gain. This creates strong price support near the entry level, as holders are unlikely to sell at a loss, but profit-taking could emerge if momentum stalls. The absence of NO entries suggests no significant bearish capital is currently defending the downside.
Polymarket prices YES at 64c with $724K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 80c. Significant 16-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 64c | $724K |
| Our Model | 80c | — |