Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dismissed reports that the U.S.

What’s Happening

On April 24, 2026, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly dismissed reports that the United States is considering suspending Spain from NATO, following the leak of an internal Pentagon email. The document, reported by Reuters, allegedly outlines punitive measures against allies perceived as insufficiently supportive of U.S. operations in the Iran war, with Spain and the United Kingdom specifically named. Sánchez stated he was "not worried" by the suggestion, while the U.S. administration has not officially confirmed the email's authenticity. This diplomatic friction raises the question of whether any country leave nato could occur before the end of the year, though the immediate focus remains on bilateral tensions rather than a formal withdrawal process. [Time, Apr 24] [Al Jazeera, Apr 24]

The reported Pentagon email and Sánchez’s response come amid broader European doubts about the alliance’s cohesion. Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Euronews on April 23 that President Donald Trump's hostility toward allies is "painful," and urged Europe to accelerate its defense independence from the U.S. framework. Meanwhile, a New York Times report from the same week noted that European defense ministers are increasingly mulling mutual defense arrangements outside NATO, as Trump continues to threaten a U.S. exit. These developments underscore a structural vulnerability: if the U.S. itself signals willingness to suspend or leave, the likelihood that any country leave nato—whether through expulsion or voluntary exit—rises, even if no formal mechanism has been triggered. [Euronews, Apr 23] [NYT, Apr 24]

The key structural factor determining whether any country leave nato by December 31, 2026 is the interplay between U.S. unilateral action and European collective response. Current NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and top military commander Alexus have not publicly commented on the Spain suspension report, but the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defense clause remains untested in a scenario where a member is expelled. Analysts caution that while the probability of a departure is low—reflected in the 10% YES estimate—the Iran war’s escalation and Trump’s transactional approach to alliances create a volatile environment. The coming months will test whether diplomatic channels can contain the rift, or if the first formal departure from the alliance since its founding in 1949 becomes a realistic scenario. [DW, Apr 24]

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