Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES).

What’s Happening

The United States outlined plans on June 12, 2026 to substantially reduce the aircraft and warships it commits to NATO operations in Europe, including a withdrawal of roughly one-third of the fighter jets it currently provides, according to officials and a written document reviewed by reporters. The plan, detailed by the Trump administration after allies met on June 2-3 to assess gaps left by the U.S. military pullback, also signals a broader withdrawal of long-range military capabilities from the European theater. The question of whether any country leave NATO by year-end has gained renewed attention amid these capability shifts, though the U.S. moves describe force-posture reductions rather than treaty exit. [NYT, Jun 12]

NATO's top military officer, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, is weighing alternative plans to defend Europe should it come under attack from Russia, after Washington signaled Europe is "no longer a top U.S. security priority," according to AP reporting from Brussels. European capitals and Canada had waited over a year for the administration to detail its scaled-back commitment, with hawks in Berlin, Paris, and Warsaw arguing the cuts demand accelerated EU defense integration rather than alliance fracture. Analysts caution that posture changes and Article 5 withdrawal are categorically different — Article 13 of the Washington Treaty requires 12 months of formal notice, meaning any departure announced after December 31, 2025 could not legally take effect within the 2026 window. [AP, Jun 12]

No member state has filed Article 13 notice, and no head of government — including the most NATO-skeptical voices in Budapest, Ankara, or Bratislava — has publicly committed to withdrawal proceedings in 2026. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have leveraged alliance disputes for bilateral concessions but stopped short of exit threats. The structural factor determining resolution is the treaty's 12-month withdrawal clock combined with the absence of any filed notice as of mid-June 2026, which mathematically constrains whether any country leave NATO before December 31, 2026. Force-posture renegotiation, not membership exit, remains the operative dynamic through the remainder of the year. [Reuters, Jun 12]

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