As of November 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?” at 78% YES with $128K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 78%: Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November. Currently, markets see this as likely (78% YES). Trader Cedric Cerezo suggests Bitcoin could drop to around $77,000 and briefly to $75,000 before potentially climbing to $90,000-$92,000 by November.
Bitcoin entered November at $78,050 following a 7.3% decline in October, its second consecutive losing October, and now sits 38.1% below its all-time high. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643 million in outflows on October 30, the largest single-day withdrawal since June, pulling total net assets down to $98.1 billion. Traders are monitoring the October 30 low of $76,141 as a key marker for November direction, with a sustained break below that level potentially opening the path toward the $75,000 threshold central to the "bitcoin dip to $75,000 in november" question. [24/7 Wall St., Nov 01]
Trader Cedric Cerezo outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin could fall to around $77,000 and briefly touch $75,000 before recovering toward $90,000–$92,000 by November, contingent on holding the 50-week exponential moving average and buyers clearing resistance between $85,000 and $87,000. Bitcoin recently slipped below its 50-day EMA while remaining above the 50-week EMA, leaving room for a short-term decline without confirming a bear market. A weekly close below the 50-week EMA would weaken that structure and raise the probability of a deeper bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November. [Pluang, Oct 27]
Two scheduled catalysts dominate the November calendar: Binance's November 3 reserve report and MSCI's November 11 decision on Strategy Inc., either of which could pressure Bitcoin below $76,141 according to analyst notes. A separate contract tracking whether Bitcoin trades below $75,000 on Coinbase before December 1 opened at 50% on October 29 when spot traded near $79,800, down from roughly $85,000 at the start of October. If price holds above the October 30 low, range-bound trading between $76,000 and $82,000 remains the base case, particularly if negative ETF flows persist. [Manifold, Oct 29]
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.
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