Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES).

What’s Happening

As of late April 2026, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faces a steep uphill battle to retain its majority in the 2026 Quebec general election, with prediction market data showing only an 8% probability that the party will win the most seats. This low confidence follows a series of legislative setbacks and declining polling numbers for Premier François Legault’s government. The CAQ’s signature education reform bill, which faced fierce opposition from teachers’ unions and the Liberal opposition, narrowly passed committee stage on April 22 but saw three caucus members break ranks, signaling internal fractures. Recent polling by Léger, released April 25, places the CAQ at 28% among decided voters, trailing the Quebec Liberal Party’s 31% and the Parti Québécois’ 24%, a dramatic reversal from the CAQ’s 41% share in the 2022 election. The market’s 92% probability against a CAQ victory reflects the party’s eroding support in key suburban Montreal ridings, where housing affordability and healthcare access have become dominant issues. [The New York Times, Apr 24]

The procedural timeline for the 2026 Quebec general election is now a critical factor, with the fixed election date set for October 5, 2026, though Premier Legault retains the option to call a snap vote earlier. The CAQ’s legislative agenda has stalled in recent weeks, with the government failing to secure a second-reading vote on its controversial Bill 96 amendments, which would tighten French-language requirements for businesses. The National Assembly’s Committee on Institutions is scheduled to begin clause-by-clause review of the bill on May 12, a process that could expose further divisions within the CAQ caucus. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party has filed a formal motion of non-confidence, citing the government’s handling of the $9 billion health-care reform package, which the auditor general flagged on April 15 for cost overruns and lack of measurable outcomes. The motion is expected to be debated on May 5, though it is unlikely to pass given the CAQ’s 76-seat majority in the 125-seat legislature. [The Times of Israel, Apr 27]

Looking ahead, the CAQ’s path to winning the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election hinges on a rapid reversal of voter sentiment, particularly among francophone voters aged 35 to 54, a demographic where the party has lost 12 percentage points since January, according to a April 28 poll from Mainstreet Research. The party’s campaign strategy, expected to be unveiled at its policy convention in Quebec City on June 15-16, will likely focus on tax cuts and infrastructure spending to regain momentum. However, the CAQ faces a crowded field: the Parti Québécois has surged in rural ridings, while Québec Solidaire is consolidating left-leaning voters in Montreal. The nomination deadline for candidates is August 15, and the CAQ has yet to field candidates in 14 of the province’s 125 ridings, including three held by outgoing incumbents. With the Liberal Party already running attack ads targeting Legault’s record on emergency room wait times, the CAQ’s window to rebuild its coalition is narrowing rapidly. [Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.