Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?” at 22% YES with $138K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 27%: Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (27% YES). Start with the fact that the Oct.

What’s Happening

The campaign for Quebec’s Oct. 5 general election is officially underway, with the Coalition Avenir Québec facing a steep defensive battle to retain its majority. At dissolution, the CAQ held 79 seats in the National Assembly, but the party has seen a dramatic erosion of support since Premier Christine Fréchette took over, with recent polls placing the party in third place behind the Parti Québécois and the Quebec Liberal Party. The CAQ’s path to winning the most seats in the Quebec general election is further complicated by a wave of retirements: of the 90 CAQ MNAs elected in 2022, 45 will not seek re-election, and two others are running under different banners, forcing the party to defend dozens of open ridings without incumbent advantages [Montreal Gazette, Aug 21].

Polling data underscores the scale of the challenge for the Coalition Avenir Québec most seats in the Quebec general election bid. An April survey showed the CAQ’s support had plummeted to levels that raised questions about whether it could win many seats at all, with the party drawing just 18 percent among francophone voters, compared to 34 percent for the PQ and 21 percent for the Liberals [Montreal Gazette, Apr 16]. More recent tracking during the campaign’s first week has shown the Liberals and PQ trading the lead, while the CAQ remains mired in the high teens to low twenties. The sovereignty question has re-emerged as a central issue, with PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon promising a referendum by 2030 if his party forms government, though he has stated no vote will occur while Donald Trump remains in the White House [MTL Blog, Aug 27].

The campaign’s procedural landscape is equally volatile, with leaders clashing over trade policy and federal relations. Fréchette has framed U.S. President Donald Trump as her main adversary in the context of an international trade war, but PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has dismissed that framing, arguing the CAQ “dropped the file of diplomacy with the rest of Canada” and is only now pretending it is a priority [EverythingGP, Aug 27]. With four major parties — the CAQ, Liberals, PQ, and Québec solidaire — all fielding full slates, and the Conservative Party of Quebec under Éric Duhaime also competing, the race for the most seats remains highly fragmented. The next milestone is the Oct. 5 vote, which will determine whether the CAQ can defy current polling or whether Quebec will see its first change in government since 2018 [BNN Bloomberg, Aug 27].

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