Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Republicans are entering the 2026 midterms with a 218-214 majority in the House, with three seats currently vacant.

What’s Happening

The prediction market for the 2026 Quebec general election currently assigns an 8% probability to the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) winning the most seats, reflecting a significant decline in the party's standing following a series of legislative setbacks and shifting voter sentiment. Recent polling from Léger indicates the CAQ trails the Parti Québécois by approximately 12 points among decided voters, a dramatic reversal from the CAQ's dominant 2022 victory when it captured 90 of 125 seats. The CAQ's flagship bill on health-care centralization, Bill 15, faced intense committee scrutiny in the National Assembly, with opposition parties successfully delaying its passage by 47 days, eroding Premier François Legault's reputation for legislative efficiency. [Politico, May 06]

This erosion of support matters because the 2026 election will determine control over Quebec's $150 billion budget and key policy areas including immigration thresholds and language laws. The CAQ's failure to secure a majority in recent by-elections—losing the riding of Jean-Talon to the PQ in October 2023 and Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne to the Liberals in March 2024—has emboldened opposition parties to push for an early election call. The PQ, under leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has capitalized on this momentum by introducing a cloture motion to fast-track a vote on its own sovereignty referendum bill, forcing the CAQ to defend its record on economic growth and French-language preservation. [The Hill, May 06]

Looking ahead, the next procedural milestone is the June 2026 deadline for the CAQ to table its pre-election budget, which will serve as a critical test of fiscal credibility. The party must also navigate a May 15 committee vote on electoral map redistribution, which could shift six ridings from suburban to urban areas—a change that historically benefits the PQ and Québec solidaire. If the CAQ fails to secure a confidence vote on its housing affordability plan by September, the Lieutenant Governor could dissolve the legislature, triggering a snap election. The 8% probability in the market reflects these compounding risks, with the CAQ's path to retaining the most seats narrowing to scenarios involving a fractured opposition vote or a late-campaign scandal. [CBC Montreal, May 06]

Traded on Polymarket — $71K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($71K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 18c YES.