Products
Radar Copy Trading Track Record Reports Pricing
Learn
How It Works Prediction Markets Guide Getting Started Legal & Regulation Tax Guide Safety Review Polymarket vs Kalshi X-Tweet Market
Other
Resolved: Apr 24, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $2.0M

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

Resolved · APR 24
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG
17c
89c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
PIN Model YES 98c
96%
Compound Signal NO 42c
16%
DeepSeek Quant YES 70c
65%
Grok Contrarian NO 15c
70%
Gemini Flash ??? 45c
60%
Kimi Macro NO 30c
70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 50c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 30c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xde7b..4bMMYES$1.4K-5%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,400 on $1.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)
NO positions
0% in profit
YES positions
100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 28c $2.0M 0c
AI Consensus 50c — × missed
Back to Market Radar