AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 76c — a conviction price reflecting confidence the blockade-lift announcement would not occur by April 30. That entry level (not a late chase at 95c+) signals early structural positioning against the event, consistent with reading Trump's posture and the operational reality of any blockade-lift timeline. Smart money positioning aligns fully with the NO-dominant resolution path now priced in.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | MM | NO | $1.6K | +24% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$483 on $1.6K capital deployed (avg +31.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |