Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 15, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $3.2M

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Q: How did 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 15, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 15

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (5 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	41c	18%
Claude Analysis	NO	12c	75%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	22c	75%
Gemini Flash	NO	28c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	38c	62%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 24c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is unambiguously positioned NO, entering at 21c when the market implied a ~21% chance of a Trump-announced blockade lift — a structural bet that no formal blockade-lifting announcement materializes by June 15. The 21c entry signals conviction that either the blockade framing itself is contested or that any de-escalation will not arrive packaged as a clean Trump announcement within the 2-week window. Direction: fade YES rallies.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4337..82	MM	YES	$4.0K	+135%
This Market Entered at 10c → now 50c (+135%), $4.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 06BUYYES10+$1,722$1,722 Realized— Unrealized+$2,325 Total Profit+$2,325 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$2.4K	+35%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 17c → now 50c (+35%), $2.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jun 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 11BUYYES17+$2,142$2,143 Jun 11SELLYES35−$991$3,535 Realized+$522 Unrealized+$700 Total Profit+$1,222 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (842) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.0K	-26%
This Market Entered at 31c → now 50c (-26%), $2.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 27 → Jun 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 27BUYYES67+$56$56 Jun 11BUYYES31+$2,585$2,610 Realized— Unrealized−$665 Total Profit−$665 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1852) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$52,688 on $8.4K capital deployed (avg +627.5%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	24c	$3.2M	100c
AI Consensus	24c	—	× missed

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