Politics

Resolves: Jun 2026 16 days left Volume: $172K

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 65% YES on Polymarket with $172K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 22c YES. 5 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

65c

35c

Prediction markets put the probability at 65%: Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (65% YES, 35% NO).

Up from 42% to 65% since 2026-05-28 (+23pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $172K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 65c YES with $172K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 5/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 35c

5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 22c vs market 65c. BUY NO at 65c — models see 43c of upside.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

5 of 6 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	NO	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	55c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	88c	70%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	72c	65%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	65c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	65c	65%

5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (65–98c vs 35c). Claude Analysis leads with 70% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 78c — market prices it at 35c. 43-point gap supports NO.

Why One Model Disagrees: Compound Signal dissents at 55c — Signal score 2 (MODERATE), 55% backtest accuracy on NO side. Blended fair value: 55% YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Lone tracked wallet committed to NO at 21c — a conviction bet that blockade-lifted announcement would NOT happen by June 15. Current 65c YES price has invalidated that thesis severely; the absence of fresh smart-money NO accumulation at deeper prices suggests low conviction in fading the YES rally.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$4.1K	+70%
This Market Entered at 21c → now 35c (+70%), $4.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYNO21+$2,381$2,381 Realized— Unrealized+$1,670 Total Profit+$1,670 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (860) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 80 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

Sole tracked NO position entered at 21c against current 65c YES price, making the NO holder deeply underwater (~44c against). With 0% of YES tracked and the single NO entry sitting at a 209% paper loss, smart money provides no profitable support for either side at current levels.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 11 Cents

Significant 11-cent gap: Polymarket at 65c vs Kalshi at 54c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 22c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	65c	$172K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	22c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 65% YES with $172K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 22c YES. 5 models agree on direction.