AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 34c |
32%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 78c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 26c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 20c, signaling early conviction that Trump will not announce a Hormuz blockade lift by June 7. The tight 20c entry band with no YES tracking suggests directional positioning against the announcement, not arbitrage. Wallet behavior aligns with the structural Iran-escalation thesis where de-escalation announcements remain low-probability short-dated events.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $4.6K | +358% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$18,300 on $4.6K capital deployed (avg +400.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $1.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 26c | — | ✓ matched |