Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (48–98c vs 52c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 71c — market prices it at 52c. 19-point gap supports NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

The single tracked wallet entered NO at 20c — a deep out-of-the-money fade implying high confidence that Trump will not announce a Hormuz blockade lift by June 7. Smart money is signaling the announcement is unlikely to materialize in the window, treating the 48c YES as overpriced relative to the structural odds of a formal lifting statement.

All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO holders are sitting on a clean ~28c gain from a 20c entry against the current 48c YES price, while there is no tracked YES exposure to defend the upside. With 100% of NO in profit and zero YES profitability, conviction sits entirely on the bearish side with room to absorb further price drift before pressure builds.

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 6 Cents

Polymarket prices YES at 48c while Kalshi has it at 54c — a 6-cent gap. Kalshi traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 29c.