AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (2 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 8c |
84%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 10c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 83c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 26c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 86c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe ★ | Retail | NO | $1.8K | +16% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$301 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg +16.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $740.5K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 26c | — | ✓ matched |