AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 75c |
58%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 38c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 35c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 70c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 81c, a position now 11% underwater, indicating a conviction bet on Flávio Bolsonaro finishing second that has been met with adverse price movement. With no NO entries from this wallet, the positioning remains one-directional and unhedged, so the 72c level will test whether this smart-money signal holds or capitulates. The lack of additional tracked wallets limits confidence in whether this represents isolated conviction or broader informed flow.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $22.0K | -12% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$21,977 on $22.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $2.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 70c | — | × missed |