Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Prediction markets put the probability at 62%: Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, markets are divided (62% YES, 38% NO).

What’s Happening

Brazil’s Congress voted on Thursday, April 30, 2026 to override President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s veto of a bill that reduces the sentencing restrictions for former President Jair Bolsonaro, a move that could directly impact the electoral prospects of his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The override, which passed with a supermajority in both chambers, effectively weakens the legal barriers that had been tied to Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction, potentially allowing him to campaign more freely for his son. This legislative action comes as the 2026 Brazilian presidential election approaches, with the first round scheduled for October 4, 2026. The probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will finish in second place in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election currently stands at 62%, according to market data, reflecting a shift in political momentum following the congressional rebuke of Lula’s agenda. [AP, Apr 30]

The political landscape has been further reshaped by the Senate’s historic rejection of Lula’s Supreme Court nominee on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, marking the first time in 132 years that a Brazilian president’s pick for the high court has been blocked. The 62-38 vote in the Senate, driven by a coalition of opposition and centrist lawmakers, dealt a significant blow to Lula’s executive authority and signaled growing institutional resistance to his administration. Analysts note that this defeat, combined with the veto override, has energized the Bolsonaro political machine, which is now positioning Flávio Bolsonaro as a viable alternative to Lula in the first round. The senator’s ability to finish in second place in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election is increasingly seen as a realistic outcome, given the fragmentation of the center-left vote and the consolidation of conservative support around his candidacy. [AP, Apr 29]

Looking ahead, the key procedural milestones will be the candidate registration deadline in August 2026 and the official start of campaign advertising on August 16, 2026. Recent polling data from Datafolha, released in late April, shows Lula leading with 38% of voter intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro has climbed to 22%, placing him in a statistical tie for second with centrist candidate Ciro Gomes. The 62% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro will finish in second place in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election reflects these tightening numbers, as well as the impact of the congressional actions that have weakened Lula’s legislative agenda. The outcome will likely hinge on whether the Bolsonaro campaign can convert the recent institutional victories into sustained voter support, particularly in the key swing states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais. [AP, May 4]

Traded on Polymarket — $62K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 68c YES.