Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (7 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $3.5M

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Q: How did 'Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 7 of 7 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	3c	94%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	85%
Gemini Flash	???	25c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	7c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $151K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 88c–97c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	NO	$136.0K	+7%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+7%), $136.0K on NO Activity · 46 events · Mar 06 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 06BUYNO69+$452$452 Mar 07BUYNO72+$1,746$2,219 Mar 11BUYNO80+$11,503$13,953 Mar 12BUYNO82+$1,899$16,264 Mar 13BUYNO79+$23,655$39,268 Mar 14BUYNO84+$4,621$46,364 Mar 15BUYNO83+$3,623$49,610 Mar 19BUYNO89+$1,780$54,977 Mar 20BUYNO89+$6,230$61,207 Mar 21BUYNO87+$2,608$62,391 Mar 22BUYNO86+$65$61,789 Mar 23BUYNO88+$2,776$65,923 Mar 24BUYNO90+$2,233$69,738 Mar 26BUYNO92+$920$72,208 Mar 31BUYNO93+$165$73,158 Apr 01BUYNO94+$1,880$75,825 Apr 02BUYNO94+$470$76,295 Apr 03BUYNO95+$4,750$81,857 Apr 07BUYNO94+$9,475$90,824 Apr 08BUYNO96+$43$92,368 Apr 10BUYNO96+$10,956$103,333 Apr 12BUYNO96+$1,848$104,965 Apr 13BUYNO96+$938$106,024 Apr 14BUYNO96+$4,456$110,491 Apr 15BUYNO96+$1,305$111,796 Apr 17BUYNO96+$1,291$113,414 Apr 20BUYNO96+$1,003$113,627 Apr 22BUYNO96+$984$115,003 Apr 23SELLNO96−$1,444$113,511 Apr 24BUYNO95+$538$113,445 Apr 25BUYNO95+$671$114,152 Apr 27BUYNO96+$1,004$115,420 May 02BUYNO96+$1,391$117,620 May 05BUYNO97+$1,757$120,099 May 06BUYNO97+$3,892$124,040 May 06SELLNO97−$646$123,599 May 07SELLNO97−$71$123,401 May 11BUYNO96+$432$122,305 May 12BUYNO95+$475$121,885 May 14BUYNO95+$502$122,772 May 15BUYNO96+$5,460$128,528 May 16SELLNO96−$404$128,622 May 18SELLNO95−$136$127,454 May 19BUYNO95+$681$127,612 May 20BUYNO95+$5,136$132,802 May 23BUYNO96+$2,954$136,961 Realized+$260 Unrealized+$9,879 Total Profit+$10,139 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1280) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$8.4K	-2%
This Market Entered at 97c → now 50c (-2%), $8.4K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYNO97+$8,577$8,576 Realized— Unrealized−$176 Total Profit−$176 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (964) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x253d..07	MM	NO	$3.4K	0%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (0%), $3.4K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 12 → May 18 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO95+$2,850$2,850 May 13BUYNO95+$487$3,343 May 18BUYNO95+$103$3,426 Realized— Unrealized−$2 Total Profit−$2 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1336) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa8af..5e	MM	NO	$2.8K	-1%
This Market Entered at 96c → now 50c (-1%), $2.8K on NO Activity · 6 events · Apr 29 → May 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 29BUYNO96+$480$480 May 05BUYNO97+$101$584 May 06BUYNO97+$631$1,218 May 10BUYNO96+$1,000$2,203 May 20BUYNO95+$476$2,663 May 25BUYNO96+$93$2,790 Realized— Unrealized−$31 Total Profit−$31 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1418) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$19,014 on $150.6K capital deployed (avg +12.6%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$3.5M	0c
AI Consensus	10c	—	✓ matched

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