As of September 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?” at 88% YES with $128K traded. No tracked smart-money wallet holds a position on this market yet.
Prediction markets put the probability at 88%: Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (88% YES). What truly sets ChatGPT 6 Astra apart is its precision in handling sophisticated tasks.
The question of whether GPT-6 will be released by September 15, 2026 has tightened sharply as traders price an imminent launch. On Kalshi, contracts for a public GPT-6-or-greater release before October 1, 2026 jumped to 46 to 47 cents from a 20-cent bid a day earlier, a 26-point move on the board's most heavily traded rung. Notably, the "before November 1" rung held at 52 to 57 cents and "before 2027" at 61 to 62 cents, both essentially flat, indicating the ladder pulled September forward without lifting the year-end total. OpenAI has announced no GPT-6 and set no date. [Oddsshopper, Aug 30]
The model, internally code-named Astra, has been the focus of intensifying speculation. Reports describe ChatGPT 6 Astra as capable of generating 3D games from a single prompt and streamlining complex workflows, with insiders suggesting a launch as early as September 2026, potentially alongside an updated GPT Image 2 model. Whether GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026 remains unconfirmed by OpenAI, and no official specifications or pricing have been published. The reported feature set positions Astra as a productivity-focused successor, though independent verification of its capabilities is not yet available. [Geeky-gadgets, Sep 01]
Sentiment on the timeline has climbed steadily over recent weeks. In late July, Myriad priced a September release near 77%, up from 64% a week earlier, while Polymarket data cited on August 18 gave GPT-6 a 59% chance of arriving by September 15 and roughly 72% by month's end. Because these are cumulative "released by" contracts, each deadline absorbs every earlier day, so the gap between rungs signals timing conviction rather than certainty. Whether GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026 will be settled within days; an OpenAI announcement, or its absence, will resolve the board. [Decrypt, Aug 18]
OddsShift follows 166 on-chain Polymarket wallets, tiered daily by their record on resolved markets. When one of them takes a position here, this page gets the wallet table, model fair value and a verdict.
See markets with smart-money data →