Prediction markets put the probability at 5%: Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (5% YES). It's Time for Cyrus Accords Between Iran and Israel.
Down from 9% to 5% since 2026-05-09 (-4pp)
Traded on Polymarket — $161K Volume
Polymarket prices this at 5c YES with $161K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.