Geopolitics
Resolves: Jan 2027 3 months left Volume: $354K

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

NO
80c
YES
20c

As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31” at 20% YES with $354K traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam assured that the army would submit a monthly report to the cabinet regarding its progress south of the Litani.

Down from 32% to 20% since 2026-07-01 (-12pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $354K Volume

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No verdict on this market

None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live. When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31?

As of September 2026, Polymarket prices this at 20% YES with $354K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.