AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 40c |
52%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 30c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
72%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 32c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 15c |
72%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 23c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Tracked wallets are positioned exclusively on the NO side, with entries spanning 41c-57c, signaling smart money expects Karen Bass to lose in 2026. Their profitable standing and lack of YES accumulation point to continued downward pressure on the YES contract. Until new YES buyers emerge with better entries, the dominant NO positioning implies the market's base case remains a Bass defeat.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $10.3K | +43% | |
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $5.9K | +3% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $1.9K | +27% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$21,536 on $18.1K capital deployed (avg +119.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 42c | $2.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 23c | — | ✓ matched |